Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations
Flood-producing rainfall amounts have a significant cumulative economic impact. Despite the advance in flood risk mitigation measures, the cost of rehabilitation and compensation of citizens by the state and insurance companies is increasing worldwide. A continuing challenge is the flood risk assess...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/6/994 |
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| author | Katerina Papagiannaki Vassiliki Kotroni Kostas Lagouvardos Antonis Bezes Vasileios Vafeiadis Ioanna Messini Efstathios Kroustallis Ioannis Totos |
| author_facet | Katerina Papagiannaki Vassiliki Kotroni Kostas Lagouvardos Antonis Bezes Vasileios Vafeiadis Ioanna Messini Efstathios Kroustallis Ioannis Totos |
| author_sort | Katerina Papagiannaki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Flood-producing rainfall amounts have a significant cumulative economic impact. Despite the advance in flood risk mitigation measures, the cost of rehabilitation and compensation of citizens by the state and insurance companies is increasing worldwide. A continuing challenge is the flood risk assessment based on reliable hazard and impact measures. The present study addresses this challenge by identifying rainfall thresholds likely to trigger economic losses due to flood damages to properties across the Athens Metropolitan Area of Greece. The analysis uses eight-year rainfall observations from 66 meteorological stations and high spatial resolution insurance claims on the postal code segmentation. Threshold selection techniques were applied based on the ROC curves widely used to assess the performance of binary response models. The model evaluates the probability of flood damages in terms of insurance claims in this case. Thresholds of 24-h rainfall were identified at the municipal level, as municipalities are the first administration level where decision making to address the local risks for the citizens is needed. The rainfall thresholds were further classified to estimate and map the local risk of flood damages. Practical implications regarding the applicability of the detected thresholds in early-warning systems are also discussed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:12:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-682d57d2e0974fbbba7a04d2b010a4b8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:12:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-682d57d2e0974fbbba7a04d2b010a4b82023-11-30T22:50:17ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-03-0114699410.3390/w14060994Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall ObservationsKaterina Papagiannaki0Vassiliki Kotroni1Kostas Lagouvardos2Antonis Bezes3Vasileios Vafeiadis4Ioanna Messini5Efstathios Kroustallis6Ioannis Totos7Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, GreeceInstitute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, GreeceInstitute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, GreeceInstitute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, GreeceInstitute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, GreeceΙnteramerican Property & Casualty Insurance Company S.A., 15124 Maroussi, GreeceΙnteramerican Property & Casualty Insurance Company S.A., 15124 Maroussi, GreeceΙnteramerican Property & Casualty Insurance Company S.A., 15124 Maroussi, GreeceFlood-producing rainfall amounts have a significant cumulative economic impact. Despite the advance in flood risk mitigation measures, the cost of rehabilitation and compensation of citizens by the state and insurance companies is increasing worldwide. A continuing challenge is the flood risk assessment based on reliable hazard and impact measures. The present study addresses this challenge by identifying rainfall thresholds likely to trigger economic losses due to flood damages to properties across the Athens Metropolitan Area of Greece. The analysis uses eight-year rainfall observations from 66 meteorological stations and high spatial resolution insurance claims on the postal code segmentation. Threshold selection techniques were applied based on the ROC curves widely used to assess the performance of binary response models. The model evaluates the probability of flood damages in terms of insurance claims in this case. Thresholds of 24-h rainfall were identified at the municipal level, as municipalities are the first administration level where decision making to address the local risks for the citizens is needed. The rainfall thresholds were further classified to estimate and map the local risk of flood damages. Practical implications regarding the applicability of the detected thresholds in early-warning systems are also discussed.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/6/994rainfall thresholdsflood damagesMediterraneanGreeceurbanearly warning |
| spellingShingle | Katerina Papagiannaki Vassiliki Kotroni Kostas Lagouvardos Antonis Bezes Vasileios Vafeiadis Ioanna Messini Efstathios Kroustallis Ioannis Totos Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations Water rainfall thresholds flood damages Mediterranean Greece urban early warning |
| title | Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations |
| title_full | Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations |
| title_fullStr | Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations |
| title_short | Identification of Rainfall Thresholds Likely to Trigger Flood Damages across a Mediterranean Region, Based on Insurance Data and Rainfall Observations |
| title_sort | identification of rainfall thresholds likely to trigger flood damages across a mediterranean region based on insurance data and rainfall observations |
| topic | rainfall thresholds flood damages Mediterranean Greece urban early warning |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/6/994 |
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