Developing spring wheat in the Noah-MP land surface model (v4.4) for growing season dynamics and responses to temperature stress
<p>The US Northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies are known as the world's breadbaskets for their large spring wheat production and exports to the world. It is essential to accurately represent spring wheat growing dynamics and final yield and improve our ability to predict food p...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-07-01
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Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3809/2023/gmd-16-3809-2023.pdf |
Summary: | <p>The US Northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies
are known as the world's breadbaskets for their large spring wheat production
and exports to the world. It is essential to accurately represent spring
wheat growing dynamics and final yield and improve our ability to predict
food production under climate change. This study attempts to incorporate
spring wheat growth dynamics into the Noah-MP crop model for a long time
period (13 years) and fine spatial scale (4 km). The study focuses on three
aspects: (1) developing and calibrating the spring wheat model at
a point scale, (2) applying a dynamic planting and harvest date to facilitate
large-scale simulations, and (3) applying a temperature stress function to
assess crop responses to heat stress amid extreme heat. Model results are
evaluated using field observations, satellite leaf area index (LAI), and
census data from Statistics Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA). Results suggest that incorporating a dynamic planting and harvest
threshold can better constrain the growing season, especially the peak
timing and magnitude of wheat LAI, as well as obtain realistic yield
compared to prescribing a static province/state-level map. Results also
demonstrate an evident control of heat stress upon wheat yield in three
Canadian Prairies Provinces, which are reasonably captured in the new
temperature stress function. This study has important implications in terms of
estimating crop yields, modeling the land–atmosphere interactions in agricultural areas, and predicting crop growth responses to increasing temperatures amidst
climate change.</p> |
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ISSN: | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |