Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change
Abstract Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop’s current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58826-w |
| _version_ | 1827284291680206848 |
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| author | Renan Le Roux Carina Furusho-Percot Jean-Charles Deswarte Marie-Odile Bancal Karine Chenu Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Alexis Durand Burak Bulut Olivier Maury Jérémie Décome Marie Launay |
| author_facet | Renan Le Roux Carina Furusho-Percot Jean-Charles Deswarte Marie-Odile Bancal Karine Chenu Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Alexis Durand Burak Bulut Olivier Maury Jérémie Décome Marie Launay |
| author_sort | Renan Le Roux |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop’s current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat’s phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit will deteriorate wheat cultivation over the French territory. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It’s a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:53:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-687a79f68ee6498daa481974b3e1db51 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:53:17Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-687a79f68ee6498daa481974b3e1db512024-04-14T11:15:41ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-04-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-58826-wMapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate changeRenan Le Roux0Carina Furusho-Percot1Jean-Charles Deswarte2Marie-Odile Bancal3Karine Chenu4Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré5Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri6Alexis Durand7Burak Bulut8Olivier Maury9Jérémie Décome10Marie Launay11INRAE, AgroClimINRAE, AgroClimARVALIS - Institut du VégétalUniversité Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR EcosysQueensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, The University of QueenslandCommissariat à l’Energie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Université Paris-Saclay, LSCE/IPSLINRAE, AgroClimINRAE, AgroClimCommissariat à l’Energie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Université Paris-Saclay, LSCE/IPSLINRAE, AgroClimINRAE, AgroClimINRAE, AgroClimAbstract Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop’s current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat’s phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit will deteriorate wheat cultivation over the French territory. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It’s a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58826-w |
| spellingShingle | Renan Le Roux Carina Furusho-Percot Jean-Charles Deswarte Marie-Odile Bancal Karine Chenu Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri Alexis Durand Burak Bulut Olivier Maury Jérémie Décome Marie Launay Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change Scientific Reports |
| title | Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change |
| title_full | Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change |
| title_short | Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change |
| title_sort | mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in france under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-58826-w |
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