Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing
Accurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the region...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Risks |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/12/210 |
| _version_ | 1827669829521244160 |
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| author | Barbara Batóg Jacek Batóg |
| author_facet | Barbara Batóg Jacek Batóg |
| author_sort | Barbara Batóg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the regional government to find additional sources to close the budget gaps. Current studies indicate that budget forecasts often underpredict revenue and use the available information inefficiently. In this article, the authors examine chosen methods of forecasting regional government revenue. In addition to classical forecasting models based on time series and causal models, an original structural forecasting procedure was proposed, which is effective especially in case of data delay. The reliability of applied methods was assessed using data from the Polish area of Zachodniopomorskie over the period 2000–2018. The found evidence supported results that were obtained by many other researchers, which indicated that less comprehensive methods of forecasting can provide reasonably accurate estimates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:10:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-687c3052e1854a06ab3bfd2670864fed |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-9091 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T03:10:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Risks |
| spelling | doaj.art-687c3052e1854a06ab3bfd2670864fed2023-11-23T10:26:23ZengMDPI AGRisks2227-90912021-11-0191221010.3390/risks9120210Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment FinancingBarbara Batóg0Jacek Batóg1Institute of Economics and Finance, University of Szczecin, 71-101 Szczecin, PolandInstitute of Economics and Finance, University of Szczecin, 71-101 Szczecin, PolandAccurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the regional government to find additional sources to close the budget gaps. Current studies indicate that budget forecasts often underpredict revenue and use the available information inefficiently. In this article, the authors examine chosen methods of forecasting regional government revenue. In addition to classical forecasting models based on time series and causal models, an original structural forecasting procedure was proposed, which is effective especially in case of data delay. The reliability of applied methods was assessed using data from the Polish area of Zachodniopomorskie over the period 2000–2018. The found evidence supported results that were obtained by many other researchers, which indicated that less comprehensive methods of forecasting can provide reasonably accurate estimates.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/12/210regional government revenueforecastingstructural forecastingregional gross product |
| spellingShingle | Barbara Batóg Jacek Batóg Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing Risks regional government revenue forecasting structural forecasting regional gross product |
| title | Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing |
| title_full | Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing |
| title_fullStr | Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing |
| title_short | Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing |
| title_sort | regional government revenue forecasting risk factors of investment financing |
| topic | regional government revenue forecasting structural forecasting regional gross product |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/12/210 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT barbarabatog regionalgovernmentrevenueforecastingriskfactorsofinvestmentfinancing AT jacekbatog regionalgovernmentrevenueforecastingriskfactorsofinvestmentfinancing |