Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco
Climate change is one of the most important factors impacting hydrological regimes. In this paper, climate change impact on streamflow of Loukkos basin (northwestern Morocco) is evaluated using SWAT model for three future periods: near (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100), compared to b...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000493 |
| _version_ | 1797801707819761664 |
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| author | Siham Acharki Soufiane Taia Youssef Arjdal Jochen Hack |
| author_facet | Siham Acharki Soufiane Taia Youssef Arjdal Jochen Hack |
| author_sort | Siham Acharki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is one of the most important factors impacting hydrological regimes. In this paper, climate change impact on streamflow of Loukkos basin (northwestern Morocco) is evaluated using SWAT model for three future periods: near (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100), compared to baseline 1981–2020. A set of bias-corrected climate models was used: five regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX), four global climate models (CMIP6) and their ensemble mean, under two representative concentration pathways respectively (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5) and (SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5). Furthermore, SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP was performed to calibrate (1981–1997), validate (1998–2015), and analyze uncertainty for each dataset at ten hydrological stations. In most stations, statistical performance indicated a good simulation, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77 and percent bias (PBIAS) within ±10% on a monthly basis. Overall, 82% of models indicated that future climate could decline streamflow. The largest decrease would be for 2071–2100 and under RCP 8.5/SSP5-8.5. Our findings could help planners and policymakers in developing reasonable water management policies and climate change adaptation measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-689249f593024a1c8596e3d0ee13851d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:36Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-689249f593024a1c8596e3d0ee13851d2023-06-18T05:02:57ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-04-0130100388Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern MoroccoSiham Acharki0Soufiane Taia1Youssef Arjdal2Jochen Hack3Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies of Tangier (FSTT), Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan 93000, MoroccoNatural Resources & Sustainable development Laboratory, Earth Sciences Department, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra 14000, MoroccoNatural Resources & Sustainable development Laboratory, Earth Sciences Department, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra 14000, MoroccoInstitute of Environmental Planning, Leibniz University Hannover, 30419 Hannover, Germany; Corresponding author.Climate change is one of the most important factors impacting hydrological regimes. In this paper, climate change impact on streamflow of Loukkos basin (northwestern Morocco) is evaluated using SWAT model for three future periods: near (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100), compared to baseline 1981–2020. A set of bias-corrected climate models was used: five regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX), four global climate models (CMIP6) and their ensemble mean, under two representative concentration pathways respectively (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5) and (SSP2-4.5; SSP5-8.5). Furthermore, SUFI-2 algorithm in SWAT-CUP was performed to calibrate (1981–1997), validate (1998–2015), and analyze uncertainty for each dataset at ten hydrological stations. In most stations, statistical performance indicated a good simulation, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77 and percent bias (PBIAS) within ±10% on a monthly basis. Overall, 82% of models indicated that future climate could decline streamflow. The largest decrease would be for 2071–2100 and under RCP 8.5/SSP5-8.5. Our findings could help planners and policymakers in developing reasonable water management policies and climate change adaptation measures.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000493Climate changeSentinel-2SWAT modelStreamflowCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Siham Acharki Soufiane Taia Youssef Arjdal Jochen Hack Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco Climate Services Climate change Sentinel-2 SWAT model Streamflow CMIP6 |
| title | Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco |
| title_full | Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco |
| title_fullStr | Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco |
| title_short | Hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern Morocco |
| title_sort | hydrological modeling of spatial and temporal variations in streamflow due to multiple climate change scenarios in northwestern morocco |
| topic | Climate change Sentinel-2 SWAT model Streamflow CMIP6 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000493 |
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