Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration
In order to reduce national and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries worldwide have committed themselves to a more sustainable development of their transport sector. Promoting the use of electrical vehicles (EVs) rather than combustion engine cars is one political strategy to achiev...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001943 |
| _version_ | 1797435802913865728 |
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| author | Tien Linh Cao Van Lukas Barthelmes Till Gnann Daniel Speth Martin Kagerbauer |
| author_facet | Tien Linh Cao Van Lukas Barthelmes Till Gnann Daniel Speth Martin Kagerbauer |
| author_sort | Tien Linh Cao Van |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to reduce national and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries worldwide have committed themselves to a more sustainable development of their transport sector. Promoting the use of electrical vehicles (EVs) rather than combustion engine cars is one political strategy to achieve a reduction in GHG emissions. To implement targeted and effective promotion measures governments can refer to market diffusion models for EVs. However, in our study we identify that in existing models the consideration of environmental measures is underrepresented. Hence, this paper addresses this gap in current market diffusion models for EVs by particular focusing on environmental effects as additional influencing factors of the market diffusion. Results are drawn for the German car market with a market diffusion simulation until 2050 applying the market diffusion model ALADIN considering the introduction of distinct CO2 tax trajectories. The results are analyzed based on scenarios, where (i) no CO2 tax, (ii) the current governmental plan for a CO2 tax, and (iii) a considerable high CO2 tax is applied. Additional insights when incrementally increasing the CO2 tax are provided. The scenario analysis shows that the market diffusion is highly dependent on the evolution of external factors. A CO2 tax considerably higher than the current governmental plan by 2030 (such as 150€/t, based on its monetary value by 2020) is required to have a meaningful impact on the market diffusion of EVs. Moreover, applying a considerable high CO2 tax leads to a slower growth of BEV and PHEV from 2040 onwards that is compensated by a growth in FCEV vehicles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:53:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6893b3459731490d8ee2ab8a3e8c6fcf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:53:22Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj.art-6893b3459731490d8ee2ab8a3e8c6fcf2023-12-01T05:01:37ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2023-11-0150101244Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integrationTien Linh Cao Van0Lukas Barthelmes1Till Gnann2Daniel Speth3Martin Kagerbauer4Institute for Transport Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstrasse 12, 76131, Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute for Transport Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstrasse 12, 76131, Karlsruhe, Germany; Corresponding author.Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI), Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139, Karlsruhe, GermanyFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI), Breslauer Strasse 48, 76139, Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute for Transport Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kaiserstrasse 12, 76131, Karlsruhe, GermanyIn order to reduce national and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, many countries worldwide have committed themselves to a more sustainable development of their transport sector. Promoting the use of electrical vehicles (EVs) rather than combustion engine cars is one political strategy to achieve a reduction in GHG emissions. To implement targeted and effective promotion measures governments can refer to market diffusion models for EVs. However, in our study we identify that in existing models the consideration of environmental measures is underrepresented. Hence, this paper addresses this gap in current market diffusion models for EVs by particular focusing on environmental effects as additional influencing factors of the market diffusion. Results are drawn for the German car market with a market diffusion simulation until 2050 applying the market diffusion model ALADIN considering the introduction of distinct CO2 tax trajectories. The results are analyzed based on scenarios, where (i) no CO2 tax, (ii) the current governmental plan for a CO2 tax, and (iii) a considerable high CO2 tax is applied. Additional insights when incrementally increasing the CO2 tax are provided. The scenario analysis shows that the market diffusion is highly dependent on the evolution of external factors. A CO2 tax considerably higher than the current governmental plan by 2030 (such as 150€/t, based on its monetary value by 2020) is required to have a meaningful impact on the market diffusion of EVs. Moreover, applying a considerable high CO2 tax leads to a slower growth of BEV and PHEV from 2040 onwards that is compensated by a growth in FCEV vehicles.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001943Electric vehiclesMarket diffusionEnvironmental policy measuresCO2 taxGermany |
| spellingShingle | Tien Linh Cao Van Lukas Barthelmes Till Gnann Daniel Speth Martin Kagerbauer Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration Energy Strategy Reviews Electric vehicles Market diffusion Environmental policy measures CO2 tax Germany |
| title | Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration |
| title_full | Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration |
| title_fullStr | Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration |
| title_short | Enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling: A German case study on environmental policy integration |
| title_sort | enhancing electric vehicle market diffusion modeling a german case study on environmental policy integration |
| topic | Electric vehicles Market diffusion Environmental policy measures CO2 tax Germany |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001943 |
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