Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis
Abstract The common cold is a leading cause of morbidity and contributes significantly to the health costs in Bhutan. The study utilized multivariate Zero-inflated Poisson regression in a Bayesian framework to identify climatic variability and spatial and temporal patterns of the common cold in Bhut...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16069-7 |
| _version_ | 1811224071944273920 |
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| author | Tsheten Tsheten Kinley Penjor Chachu Tshering Archie C. A. Clements Darren J. Gray Kinley Wangdi |
| author_facet | Tsheten Tsheten Kinley Penjor Chachu Tshering Archie C. A. Clements Darren J. Gray Kinley Wangdi |
| author_sort | Tsheten Tsheten |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The common cold is a leading cause of morbidity and contributes significantly to the health costs in Bhutan. The study utilized multivariate Zero-inflated Poisson regression in a Bayesian framework to identify climatic variability and spatial and temporal patterns of the common cold in Bhutan. There were 2,480,509 notifications of common cold between 2010 and 2018. Children aged < 15 years were twice (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.2, 2.5) as likely to get common cold than adults, and males were 12.4% (95 CrI 5.5%, 18.7%) less likely to get common cold than females. A 10 mm increase in rainfall lagged one month, and each 1 °C increase of maximum temperature was associated with a 5.1% (95% CrI 4.2%, 6.1%) and 2.6% (95% CrI 2.3%, 2.8%) increase in the risk of cold respectively. An increase in elevation of 100 m and 1% increase in relative humidity lagged three months were associated with a decrease in risk of common cold by 0.1% (95% CrI 0.1%, 0.2%) and 0.3% (95% CrI 0.2%, 0.3%) respectively. Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity can partly be explained by the association of common cold to climatic variables. There was statistically significant residual clustering after accounting for covariates. The finding highlights the influence of climatic variables on common cold and suggests that prioritizing control strategies for acute respiratory infection program to subdistricts and times of the year when climatic variables are associated with common cold may be an effective strategy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T08:43:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-68cd4731865842a4a6bc42af8af38b0a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T08:43:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-68cd4731865842a4a6bc42af8af38b0a2022-12-22T03:39:47ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-07-0112111110.1038/s41598-022-16069-7Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysisTsheten Tsheten0Kinley Penjor1Chachu Tshering2Archie C. A. Clements3Darren J. Gray4Kinley Wangdi5National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National UniversityVector-Borne Diseases Control Programme, Department of Public Health, Ministry of HealthChild Health Program, Communicable Diseases Division, Department of Public Health, Ministry of HealthTelethon Kids InstituteNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National UniversityNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, College of Health and Medicine, Australian National UniversityAbstract The common cold is a leading cause of morbidity and contributes significantly to the health costs in Bhutan. The study utilized multivariate Zero-inflated Poisson regression in a Bayesian framework to identify climatic variability and spatial and temporal patterns of the common cold in Bhutan. There were 2,480,509 notifications of common cold between 2010 and 2018. Children aged < 15 years were twice (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.2, 2.5) as likely to get common cold than adults, and males were 12.4% (95 CrI 5.5%, 18.7%) less likely to get common cold than females. A 10 mm increase in rainfall lagged one month, and each 1 °C increase of maximum temperature was associated with a 5.1% (95% CrI 4.2%, 6.1%) and 2.6% (95% CrI 2.3%, 2.8%) increase in the risk of cold respectively. An increase in elevation of 100 m and 1% increase in relative humidity lagged three months were associated with a decrease in risk of common cold by 0.1% (95% CrI 0.1%, 0.2%) and 0.3% (95% CrI 0.2%, 0.3%) respectively. Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity can partly be explained by the association of common cold to climatic variables. There was statistically significant residual clustering after accounting for covariates. The finding highlights the influence of climatic variables on common cold and suggests that prioritizing control strategies for acute respiratory infection program to subdistricts and times of the year when climatic variables are associated with common cold may be an effective strategy.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16069-7 |
| spellingShingle | Tsheten Tsheten Kinley Penjor Chachu Tshering Archie C. A. Clements Darren J. Gray Kinley Wangdi Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis Scientific Reports |
| title | Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis |
| title_full | Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis |
| title_fullStr | Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis |
| title_short | Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis |
| title_sort | identifying socio ecological drivers of common cold in bhutan a national surveillance data analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16069-7 |
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