Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study
Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovere...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2022-06-01
|
| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722000239 |
| _version_ | 1797204325488918528 |
|---|---|
| author | Jie-feng Huang Ze-yu Zhao Wen-kui Lu Jia Rui Bin Deng Wei-kang Liu Tian-long Yang Zhuo-yang Li Pei-hua Li Chan Liu Li Luo Bin Zhao Yi-fang Wang Qun Li Ming-zhai Wang Tianmu Chen |
| author_facet | Jie-feng Huang Ze-yu Zhao Wen-kui Lu Jia Rui Bin Deng Wei-kang Liu Tian-long Yang Zhuo-yang Li Pei-hua Li Chan Liu Li Luo Bin Zhao Yi-fang Wang Qun Li Ming-zhai Wang Tianmu Chen |
| author_sort | Jie-feng Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt). Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of Rt = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). Rt was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with Rt. Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T12:24:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6908965ffd9c48968eaeb3952159f1be |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:33:26Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-6908965ffd9c48968eaeb3952159f1be2024-04-16T18:32:30ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272022-06-0172127137Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling studyJie-feng Huang0Ze-yu Zhao1Wen-kui Lu2Jia Rui3Bin Deng4Wei-kang Liu5Tian-long Yang6Zhuo-yang Li7Pei-hua Li8Chan Liu9Li Luo10Bin Zhao11Yi-fang Wang12Qun Li13Ming-zhai Wang14Tianmu Chen15State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaXiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaXiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, ChinaPublic Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping District, Beijing City, China; Corresponding author.Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China; Corresponding author.State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China; Corresponding author.Objective: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables. Method: A seasonal Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt). Results: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of Rt = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). Rt was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with Rt. Conclusion: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722000239MumpsTransmissibilityMeteorological factorsCorrelationTime-dependent reproduction number |
| spellingShingle | Jie-feng Huang Ze-yu Zhao Wen-kui Lu Jia Rui Bin Deng Wei-kang Liu Tian-long Yang Zhuo-yang Li Pei-hua Li Chan Liu Li Luo Bin Zhao Yi-fang Wang Qun Li Ming-zhai Wang Tianmu Chen Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study Infectious Disease Modelling Mumps Transmissibility Meteorological factors Correlation Time-dependent reproduction number |
| title | Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study |
| title_full | Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study |
| title_short | Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study |
| title_sort | correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in xiamen city china a modelling study |
| topic | Mumps Transmissibility Meteorological factors Correlation Time-dependent reproduction number |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722000239 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiefenghuang correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT zeyuzhao correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT wenkuilu correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT jiarui correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT bindeng correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT weikangliu correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT tianlongyang correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT zhuoyangli correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT peihuali correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT chanliu correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT liluo correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT binzhao correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT yifangwang correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT qunli correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT mingzhaiwang correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy AT tianmuchen correlationbetweenmumpsandmeteorologicalfactorsinxiamencitychinaamodellingstudy |