Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections
Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/9/261 |
| _version_ | 1797579885382729728 |
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| author | Rossano Ciampalini Elizabeth J. Kendon José A. Constantine Marcus Schindewolf Ian R. Hall |
| author_facet | Rossano Ciampalini Elizabeth J. Kendon José A. Constantine Marcus Schindewolf Ian R. Hall |
| author_sort | Rossano Ciampalini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km (‘convection-permitting’) regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the “Rother” catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha<sup>−1</sup> y<sup>−1</sup> and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:43:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-69ac5228ea5f4debb5ba904e91f79c66 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:43:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-69ac5228ea5f4debb5ba904e91f79c662023-11-19T10:54:42ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632023-08-0113926110.3390/geosciences13090261Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate ProjectionsRossano Ciampalini0Elizabeth J. Kendon1José A. Constantine2Marcus Schindewolf3Ian R. Hall4School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UKMet Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UKThuringian State Institute of Agriculture, 07743 Jena, GermanySchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UKClimate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km (‘convection-permitting’) regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the “Rother” catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha<sup>−1</sup> y<sup>−1</sup> and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/9/261soil erosion modelingclimate changeHD climate projections |
| spellingShingle | Rossano Ciampalini Elizabeth J. Kendon José A. Constantine Marcus Schindewolf Ian R. Hall Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections Geosciences soil erosion modeling climate change HD climate projections |
| title | Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections |
| title_full | Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections |
| title_fullStr | Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections |
| title_short | Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections |
| title_sort | soil erosion in a british watershed under climate change as predicted using convection permitting regional climate projections |
| topic | soil erosion modeling climate change HD climate projections |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/9/261 |
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