Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China
Changes in heat stress due to climate change affect living and working conditions. A wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35 °C is identified as the upper physiological limit for human survivability. On the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations, our evaluations show that t...
| প্রধান লেখক: | , , , |
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| বিন্যাস: | প্রবন্ধ |
| ভাষা: | English |
| প্রকাশিত: |
IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| মালা: | Environmental Research Letters |
| বিষয়গুলি: | |
| অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fc |
| _version_ | 1827869499116748800 |
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| author | Huopo Chen Wenyue He Jianqi Sun Lefeng Chen |
| author_facet | Huopo Chen Wenyue He Jianqi Sun Lefeng Chen |
| author_sort | Huopo Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Changes in heat stress due to climate change affect living and working conditions. A wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35 °C is identified as the upper physiological limit for human survivability. On the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations, our evaluations show that the daily maximum TW is expected to significantly intensify throughout China and is likely to exceed this critical threshold in some regions by the end of this century, especially under the high emission scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)5-8.5. The most dangerous hazard from extreme heat-humidity events is concentrated around the most densely populated regions of eastern China as well as the Sichuan basin. Under SSP5-8.5, the significant increase of extreme heat-humidity days with a daily maximum TW exceeding 35 °C results in a large fractional population of approximately 81% being exposed to these extremes in China by the end of this century. This is true for different future warming scenarios, and a population fraction of up to 51% would also be exposed to such extremes even if early mitigation was conducted via SSP1-2.6. Our findings in this study thus have significant implications to ongoing considerations for climate-change policy in China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-69c1f40028c1488bb882b73b5e43000f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:04Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-69c1f40028c1488bb882b73b5e43000f2023-08-09T15:27:52ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117606401310.1088/1748-9326/ac69fcIncreases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in ChinaHuopo Chen0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0760-8353Wenyue He1Jianqi Sun2Lefeng Chen3Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaNansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaNansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaWenzhou Water Conservancy Construction Management Center , Wenzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaChanges in heat stress due to climate change affect living and working conditions. A wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35 °C is identified as the upper physiological limit for human survivability. On the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations, our evaluations show that the daily maximum TW is expected to significantly intensify throughout China and is likely to exceed this critical threshold in some regions by the end of this century, especially under the high emission scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)5-8.5. The most dangerous hazard from extreme heat-humidity events is concentrated around the most densely populated regions of eastern China as well as the Sichuan basin. Under SSP5-8.5, the significant increase of extreme heat-humidity days with a daily maximum TW exceeding 35 °C results in a large fractional population of approximately 81% being exposed to these extremes in China by the end of this century. This is true for different future warming scenarios, and a population fraction of up to 51% would also be exposed to such extremes even if early mitigation was conducted via SSP1-2.6. Our findings in this study thus have significant implications to ongoing considerations for climate-change policy in China.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fcwet-bulb temperatureextreme heat-humidity eventpopulation exposureCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Huopo Chen Wenyue He Jianqi Sun Lefeng Chen Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China Environmental Research Letters wet-bulb temperature extreme heat-humidity event population exposure CMIP6 |
| title | Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China |
| title_full | Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China |
| title_fullStr | Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China |
| title_short | Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China |
| title_sort | increases of extreme heat humidity days endanger future populations living in china |
| topic | wet-bulb temperature extreme heat-humidity event population exposure CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fc |
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