Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy
This paper investigates the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. Disease mappings of the virus infections by using the Besag–York–Mollié model and some spatio-temporal extensions are provided. This modeling framework...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2454 |
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| author | Nicoletta D’Angelo Antonino Abbruzzo Giada Adelfio |
| author_facet | Nicoletta D’Angelo Antonino Abbruzzo Giada Adelfio |
| author_sort | Nicoletta D’Angelo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper investigates the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. Disease mappings of the virus infections by using the Besag–York–Mollié model and some spatio-temporal extensions are provided. This modeling framework, which includes a temporal component, allows the studying of the time evolution of the spread pattern among the 107 Italian provinces. The focus is on the effect of citizens’ mobility patterns, represented here by the three distinct phases of the Italian virus first wave, identified by the Italian government, also characterized by the lockdown period. Results show the effectiveness of the lockdown action and an inhomogeneous spatial trend that characterizes the virus spread during the first wave. Furthermore, the results suggest that the temporal evolution of each province’s cases is independent of the temporal evolution of the other ones, meaning that the contagions and temporal trend may be caused by some province-specific aspects rather than by the subjects’ spatial movements. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:55:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-69edcc9422cf4807bb2ebe7f568e8f3a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:55:00Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-69edcc9422cf4807bb2ebe7f568e8f3a2023-11-22T16:30:34ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902021-10-01919245410.3390/math9192454Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in ItalyNicoletta D’Angelo0Antonino Abbruzzo1Giada Adelfio2Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 90128 Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 90128 Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 90128 Palermo, ItalyThis paper investigates the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. Disease mappings of the virus infections by using the Besag–York–Mollié model and some spatio-temporal extensions are provided. This modeling framework, which includes a temporal component, allows the studying of the time evolution of the spread pattern among the 107 Italian provinces. The focus is on the effect of citizens’ mobility patterns, represented here by the three distinct phases of the Italian virus first wave, identified by the Italian government, also characterized by the lockdown period. Results show the effectiveness of the lockdown action and an inhomogeneous spatial trend that characterizes the virus spread during the first wave. Furthermore, the results suggest that the temporal evolution of each province’s cases is independent of the temporal evolution of the other ones, meaning that the contagions and temporal trend may be caused by some province-specific aspects rather than by the subjects’ spatial movements.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2454Besag–York–Mollié modelCOVID-19disease mappingspatio-temporal models |
| spellingShingle | Nicoletta D’Angelo Antonino Abbruzzo Giada Adelfio Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy Mathematics Besag–York–Mollié model COVID-19 disease mapping spatio-temporal models |
| title | Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy |
| title_full | Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy |
| title_fullStr | Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy |
| title_short | Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy |
| title_sort | spatio temporal spread pattern of covid 19 in italy |
| topic | Besag–York–Mollié model COVID-19 disease mapping spatio-temporal models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2454 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nicolettadangelo spatiotemporalspreadpatternofcovid19initaly AT antoninoabbruzzo spatiotemporalspreadpatternofcovid19initaly AT giadaadelfio spatiotemporalspreadpatternofcovid19initaly |