Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future
Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology offers a promising path for addressing energy demand and mitigating climate change. However, climatic conditions relevant to the productivity of solar power may be changed in a warmer future. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on PV potential over China...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9e0b |
| _version_ | 1797747237641519104 |
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| author | Jintao Zhang Qinglong You Safi Ullah |
| author_facet | Jintao Zhang Qinglong You Safi Ullah |
| author_sort | Jintao Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology offers a promising path for addressing energy demand and mitigating climate change. However, climatic conditions relevant to the productivity of solar power may be changed in a warmer future. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on PV potential over China based on high-resolution climate projections within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Our results indicate that the annual mean PV power potential ( PV _POT ) over China would decrease by several percent relative to the reference period (1986–2005) under a warmer climate, with the most pronounced decrease over the Tibetan Plateau, which is currently the most solar-rich region in China. However, beyond changes in the mean climate state, we demonstrate a substantial increase in events of extreme low PV power outputs (i.e. those falling below the 10th percentile of the probability distribution of the daily PV _POT anomalies). For instance, the frequency of extreme low PV events is projected to reach nearly three times the reference period level over the Tibetan Plateau under the scenario of 3 °C global warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies). Future changes in PV _POT are dominated by changes in surface solar irradiance, while the warming condition further exacerbates the decrease in PV _POT . Our results highlight that both the mean and extreme conditions of solar inputs should be considered simultaneously when assessing the impacts of climate change on PV power outputs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6a0bbf6102cf404c981253d2aaec77e4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:56Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6a0bbf6102cf404c981253d2aaec77e42023-08-09T15:19:38ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-01171111403210.1088/1748-9326/ac9e0bChanges in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer futureJintao Zhang0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4582-6266Qinglong You1Safi Ullah2Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of China; Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System, Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute , Zhuhai 518057, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of ChinaSolar photovoltaic (PV) technology offers a promising path for addressing energy demand and mitigating climate change. However, climatic conditions relevant to the productivity of solar power may be changed in a warmer future. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on PV potential over China based on high-resolution climate projections within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Our results indicate that the annual mean PV power potential ( PV _POT ) over China would decrease by several percent relative to the reference period (1986–2005) under a warmer climate, with the most pronounced decrease over the Tibetan Plateau, which is currently the most solar-rich region in China. However, beyond changes in the mean climate state, we demonstrate a substantial increase in events of extreme low PV power outputs (i.e. those falling below the 10th percentile of the probability distribution of the daily PV _POT anomalies). For instance, the frequency of extreme low PV events is projected to reach nearly three times the reference period level over the Tibetan Plateau under the scenario of 3 °C global warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies). Future changes in PV _POT are dominated by changes in surface solar irradiance, while the warming condition further exacerbates the decrease in PV _POT . Our results highlight that both the mean and extreme conditions of solar inputs should be considered simultaneously when assessing the impacts of climate change on PV power outputs.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9e0bsolar energyphotovoltaicclimate changerenewable energyCORDEXcarbon neutral |
| spellingShingle | Jintao Zhang Qinglong You Safi Ullah Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future Environmental Research Letters solar energy photovoltaic climate change renewable energy CORDEX carbon neutral |
| title | Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future |
| title_full | Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future |
| title_fullStr | Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future |
| title_short | Changes in photovoltaic potential over China in a warmer future |
| title_sort | changes in photovoltaic potential over china in a warmer future |
| topic | solar energy photovoltaic climate change renewable energy CORDEX carbon neutral |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9e0b |
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