A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects
In this paper, a new approach for contingency determination in a portfolio of construction projects is proposed. The model proposed helps an agency find the level of confidence needed for individual projects to ensure that the portfolio budget will meet the minimum level of confidence based on avail...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Society for Risk Analysis - China
2012-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/4410.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811323752363851776 |
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| author | Payam Bakhshi Ali Touran |
| author_facet | Payam Bakhshi Ali Touran |
| author_sort | Payam Bakhshi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, a new approach for contingency determination in a portfolio of construction projects is proposed. The model proposed helps an agency find the level of confidence needed for individual projects to ensure that the portfolio budget will meet the minimum level of confidence based on available funding and the agency’s policy goals. The promise of this model is to protect a portfolio of projects against cost overrun by adjusting their original budgets. A Bayesian approach is employed to update the model on regular intervals. As more information becomes available in the future, the required adjustment in portfolio budget will be reduced, because the accuracy of estimating the contingency is improved. The proposed model is an effective tool for the agencies/owners to develop contingency budgets. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T14:00:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6a8d4b8495544ababe204213f5ca3171 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2210-8505 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T14:00:47Z |
| publishDate | 2012-12-01 |
| publisher | Society for Risk Analysis - China |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) |
| spelling | doaj.art-6a8d4b8495544ababe204213f5ca31712022-12-22T02:44:03ZengSociety for Risk Analysis - ChinaJournal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR)2210-85052012-12-012410.2991/jrarc.2012.2.4.2A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction ProjectsPayam BakhshiAli TouranIn this paper, a new approach for contingency determination in a portfolio of construction projects is proposed. The model proposed helps an agency find the level of confidence needed for individual projects to ensure that the portfolio budget will meet the minimum level of confidence based on available funding and the agency’s policy goals. The promise of this model is to protect a portfolio of projects against cost overrun by adjusting their original budgets. A Bayesian approach is employed to update the model on regular intervals. As more information becomes available in the future, the required adjustment in portfolio budget will be reduced, because the accuracy of estimating the contingency is improved. The proposed model is an effective tool for the agencies/owners to develop contingency budgets.https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/4410.pdfContingencyRiskProbabilistic ModelPortfolio of ProjectsBayesian |
| spellingShingle | Payam Bakhshi Ali Touran A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (JRACR) Contingency Risk Probabilistic Model Portfolio of Projects Bayesian |
| title | A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects |
| title_full | A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects |
| title_fullStr | A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects |
| title_full_unstemmed | A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects |
| title_short | A New Approach for Contingency Determination in a Portfolio of Construction Projects |
| title_sort | new approach for contingency determination in a portfolio of construction projects |
| topic | Contingency Risk Probabilistic Model Portfolio of Projects Bayesian |
| url | https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/4410.pdf |
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