The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
<p>While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emission...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/9075/2022/gmd-15-9075-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797979946048552960 |
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| author | J. S. Kikstra J. S. Kikstra J. S. Kikstra Z. R. J. Nicholls Z. R. J. Nicholls Z. R. J. Nicholls C. J. Smith C. J. Smith J. Lewis J. Lewis J. Lewis R. D. Lamboll R. D. Lamboll E. Byers M. Sandstad M. Meinshausen M. Meinshausen M. J. Gidden M. J. Gidden J. Rogelj J. Rogelj J. Rogelj E. Kriegler E. Kriegler G. P. Peters J. S. Fuglestvedt R. B. Skeie B. H. Samset L. Wienpahl D. P. van Vuuren D. P. van Vuuren K.-I. van der Wijst A. Al Khourdajie P. M. Forster A. Reisinger R. Schaeffer K. Riahi K. Riahi |
| author_facet | J. S. Kikstra J. S. Kikstra J. S. Kikstra Z. R. J. Nicholls Z. R. J. Nicholls Z. R. J. Nicholls C. J. Smith C. J. Smith J. Lewis J. Lewis J. Lewis R. D. Lamboll R. D. Lamboll E. Byers M. Sandstad M. Meinshausen M. Meinshausen M. J. Gidden M. J. Gidden J. Rogelj J. Rogelj J. Rogelj E. Kriegler E. Kriegler G. P. Peters J. S. Fuglestvedt R. B. Skeie B. H. Samset L. Wienpahl D. P. van Vuuren D. P. van Vuuren K.-I. van der Wijst A. Al Khourdajie P. M. Forster A. Reisinger R. Schaeffer K. Riahi K. Riahi |
| author_sort | J. S. Kikstra |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>While the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the
IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of
future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean
temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the
challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and
cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the “climate-assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as
applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible
interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of
emissions scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes
97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3
results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median
temperature projections of up to about 0.1 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C for up to a few
decades before returning to below 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with
three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or
net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by
about 0.3–0.4 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C in
2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for
SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a
“climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the
IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool
for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling
of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:46:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6aa23de9f364424da20216544c4ee07a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T05:46:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-6aa23de9f364424da20216544c4ee07a2022-12-22T04:42:12ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032022-12-01159075910910.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperaturesJ. S. Kikstra0J. S. Kikstra1J. S. Kikstra2Z. R. J. Nicholls3Z. R. J. Nicholls4Z. R. J. Nicholls5C. J. Smith6C. J. Smith7J. Lewis8J. Lewis9J. Lewis10R. D. Lamboll11R. D. Lamboll12E. Byers13M. Sandstad14M. Meinshausen15M. Meinshausen16M. J. Gidden17M. J. Gidden18J. Rogelj19J. Rogelj20J. Rogelj21E. Kriegler22E. Kriegler23G. P. Peters24J. S. Fuglestvedt25R. B. Skeie26B. H. Samset27L. Wienpahl28D. P. van Vuuren29D. P. van Vuuren30K.-I. van der Wijst31A. Al Khourdajie32P. M. Forster33A. Reisinger34R. Schaeffer35K. Riahi36K. Riahi37Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaThe Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UKCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UKEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaClimate & Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Climate Resource, Melbourne, AustraliaClimate Resource, Northcote, AustraliaEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaPriestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaClimate & Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Climate Resource, Melbourne, AustraliaClimate Resource, Northcote, AustraliaThe Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UKCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UKEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayClimate & Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Climate Resource, Melbourne, AustraliaClimate Resource, Northcote, AustraliaEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaClimate Analytics, Berlin, GermanyEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaThe Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UKCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UKPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyFaculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UKPriestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Fenner School of Society & Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, AustraliaCentre for Energy and Environmental Economics (CENERGIA), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, BrazilEnergy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, AustriaInstitute of Thermal Engineering, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria<p>While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the “climate-assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a “climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/9075/2022/gmd-15-9075-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. S. Kikstra J. S. Kikstra J. S. Kikstra Z. R. J. Nicholls Z. R. J. Nicholls Z. R. J. Nicholls C. J. Smith C. J. Smith J. Lewis J. Lewis J. Lewis R. D. Lamboll R. D. Lamboll E. Byers M. Sandstad M. Meinshausen M. Meinshausen M. J. Gidden M. J. Gidden J. Rogelj J. Rogelj J. Rogelj E. Kriegler E. Kriegler G. P. Peters J. S. Fuglestvedt R. B. Skeie B. H. Samset L. Wienpahl D. P. van Vuuren D. P. van Vuuren K.-I. van der Wijst A. Al Khourdajie P. M. Forster A. Reisinger R. Schaeffer K. Riahi K. Riahi The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures |
| title_full | The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures |
| title_fullStr | The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures |
| title_full_unstemmed | The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures |
| title_short | The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures |
| title_sort | ipcc sixth assessment report wgiii climate assessment of mitigation pathways from emissions to global temperatures |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/9075/2022/gmd-15-9075-2022.pdf |
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