Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China
The open burning of crop straw releases greenhouse and harmful gases, and pollutants, which hinder the reduction of carbon emissions and attainment of environmental protection commitments in China. In this study, based on the fractional discrete grey model (FDGM (1,1)) and the new information priori...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Energy Reports |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723007497 |
| _version_ | 1797781856609894400 |
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| author | Xinyi Liu Suzi Tu Jie Liu Zhichun Liu |
| author_facet | Xinyi Liu Suzi Tu Jie Liu Zhichun Liu |
| author_sort | Xinyi Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The open burning of crop straw releases greenhouse and harmful gases, and pollutants, which hinder the reduction of carbon emissions and attainment of environmental protection commitments in China. In this study, based on the fractional discrete grey model (FDGM (1,1)) and the new information priority discrete grey model (NIPDGM (1,1)), an alternative weighted hybrid discrete grey model (WHDGM (1,1)) coupled with a particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed to forecast the total crop straw production, quantity of crop straw open burning, and burning emissions in China. The results have shown that the proposed WHDGM (1,1) had the highest simulation accuracy compared to NIPDGM (1,1) and FDGM (1,1). Based on the WHDGM (1,1), predictions for annual crop straw production, crop straw open burning, and induced CO, CO2, NOx, and PM2.5emissions are conducted, respectively. By 2025, crop straw production and crop straw open burning will increase by 10.5% and 7.2%, respectively. Relevant CO, CO2, NOx, and PM2.5will be augmented by 7.4%, 7.7%, 5.6%, and 9.6%, respectively. Countermeasures for controlling crop straw open burning and relevant policy suggestions have been discussed. This study offers practical insights and guidance for the strategic control of crop straw open burning, therefore, ensuring the achievement of carbon neutrality and supporting environmental commitment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:02:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6ad0b14699544c95a409c18066bcb96a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-4847 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:02:50Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-6ad0b14699544c95a409c18066bcb96a2023-07-13T05:30:12ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472023-12-01956595669Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for ChinaXinyi Liu0Suzi Tu1Jie Liu2Zhichun Liu3School of Journalism and Information Communication, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, PR China; School of Entrepreneurship, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, PR ChinaSchool of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, PR ChinaSchool of Journalism and Information Communication, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, PR China; Corresponding authors.School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, PR China; Corresponding authors.The open burning of crop straw releases greenhouse and harmful gases, and pollutants, which hinder the reduction of carbon emissions and attainment of environmental protection commitments in China. In this study, based on the fractional discrete grey model (FDGM (1,1)) and the new information priority discrete grey model (NIPDGM (1,1)), an alternative weighted hybrid discrete grey model (WHDGM (1,1)) coupled with a particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed to forecast the total crop straw production, quantity of crop straw open burning, and burning emissions in China. The results have shown that the proposed WHDGM (1,1) had the highest simulation accuracy compared to NIPDGM (1,1) and FDGM (1,1). Based on the WHDGM (1,1), predictions for annual crop straw production, crop straw open burning, and induced CO, CO2, NOx, and PM2.5emissions are conducted, respectively. By 2025, crop straw production and crop straw open burning will increase by 10.5% and 7.2%, respectively. Relevant CO, CO2, NOx, and PM2.5will be augmented by 7.4%, 7.7%, 5.6%, and 9.6%, respectively. Countermeasures for controlling crop straw open burning and relevant policy suggestions have been discussed. This study offers practical insights and guidance for the strategic control of crop straw open burning, therefore, ensuring the achievement of carbon neutrality and supporting environmental commitment.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723007497Crop strawOpen burningEmission forecastingPolicy analysis |
| spellingShingle | Xinyi Liu Suzi Tu Jie Liu Zhichun Liu Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China Energy Reports Crop straw Open burning Emission forecasting Policy analysis |
| title | Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China |
| title_full | Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China |
| title_fullStr | Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China |
| title_short | Emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis: The case for China |
| title_sort | emission forecasting from open burning of crop straw and policy analysis the case for china |
| topic | Crop straw Open burning Emission forecasting Policy analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484723007497 |
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