BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change
Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight un...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-08-01
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| Series: | Pathogens |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/9/8/659 |
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| author | Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan Shankar K. Shakya Karen A. Garrett Erica M. Goss Nicholas S. Dufault Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra Senthold Asseng Daniel Wallach Ariena H.C van Bruggen |
| author_facet | Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan Shankar K. Shakya Karen A. Garrett Erica M. Goss Nicholas S. Dufault Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra Senthold Asseng Daniel Wallach Ariena H.C van Bruggen |
| author_sort | Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:22:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6af16fdc9ee64e53809089ea08ee6f1f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-0817 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:22:27Z |
| publishDate | 2020-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Pathogens |
| spelling | doaj.art-6af16fdc9ee64e53809089ea08ee6f1f2023-11-20T10:17:19ZengMDPI AGPathogens2076-08172020-08-019865910.3390/pathogens9080659BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate ChangeHossein A. Narouei-Khandan0Shankar K. Shakya1Karen A. Garrett2Erica M. Goss3Nicholas S. Dufault4Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra5Senthold Asseng6Daniel Wallach7Ariena H.C van Bruggen8Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USADepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USADepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USADepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USADepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USAInternational Potato Center (CIP) and CGIAR Research Program on Roots Tubers and Bananas (RTB), P.O. Box 1558, Lima 12, PeruDepartment of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, 224 Frazier Rogers Hall, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611-0570, USAInstitut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), UMR AGIR, BP 52627, 31326 Castanet Tolosan Cedex, FranceDepartment of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USATemperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/9/8/659Simulation modelSEIR modelRrelative reproductive ratelesion growthoscillating temperatures |
| spellingShingle | Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan Shankar K. Shakya Karen A. Garrett Erica M. Goss Nicholas S. Dufault Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra Senthold Asseng Daniel Wallach Ariena H.C van Bruggen BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change Pathogens Simulation model SEIR model R relative reproductive rate lesion growth oscillating temperatures |
| title | BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change |
| title_full | BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change |
| title_short | BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change |
| title_sort | blightsim a new potato late blight model simulating the response of i phytophthora infestans i to diurnal temperature and humidity fluctuations in relation to climate change |
| topic | Simulation model SEIR model R relative reproductive rate lesion growth oscillating temperatures |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/9/8/659 |
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