Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index
Background An epidemiological model (susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC)) was previously developed and applied to incorporate quarantine measures and calculate COVID-19 contagion dynamics and pandemic control in some Chinese regions. Here, we general...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
PeerJ Inc.
2023-03-01
|
| Series: | PeerJ |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/14892.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797420842041212928 |
|---|---|
| author | Dino G. Salinas M. Leonor Bustamante Mauricio O. Gallardo |
| author_facet | Dino G. Salinas M. Leonor Bustamante Mauricio O. Gallardo |
| author_sort | Dino G. Salinas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background An epidemiological model (susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC)) was previously developed and applied to incorporate quarantine measures and calculate COVID-19 contagion dynamics and pandemic control in some Chinese regions. Here, we generalized this model to incorporate the disease recovery rate and applied our model to records of the total number of confirmed cases of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in some Chilean communes. Methods In each commune, two consecutive stages were considered: a stage without quarantine and an immediately subsequent quarantine stage imposed by the Ministry of Health. To adjust the model, typical epidemiological parameters were determined, such as the confirmation rate and the quarantine rate. The latter allowed us to calculate the reproduction number. Results The mathematical model adequately reproduced the data, indicating a higher quarantine rate when quarantine was imposed by the health authority, with a corresponding decrease in the reproduction number of the virus down to values that prevent or decrease its exponential spread. In general, during this second stage, the communes with the lowest social priority indices had the highest quarantine rates, and therefore, the lowest effective viral reproduction numbers. This study provides useful evidence to address the health inequity of pandemics. The mathematical model applied here can be used in other regions or easily modified for other cases of infectious disease control by quarantine. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:07:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6af1b5553bd94329933be94cbe78b438 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:07:18Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-6af1b5553bd94329933be94cbe78b4382023-12-03T09:23:28ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592023-03-0111e1489210.7717/peerj.14892Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority IndexDino G. Salinas0M. Leonor Bustamante1Mauricio O. Gallardo2Centro de Investigación Biomédica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, ChileHuman Genetics Program, Biomedical Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileCentro de Investigación Biomédica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, ChileBackground An epidemiological model (susceptible, un-quarantined infected, quarantined infected, confirmed infected (SUQC)) was previously developed and applied to incorporate quarantine measures and calculate COVID-19 contagion dynamics and pandemic control in some Chinese regions. Here, we generalized this model to incorporate the disease recovery rate and applied our model to records of the total number of confirmed cases of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in some Chilean communes. Methods In each commune, two consecutive stages were considered: a stage without quarantine and an immediately subsequent quarantine stage imposed by the Ministry of Health. To adjust the model, typical epidemiological parameters were determined, such as the confirmation rate and the quarantine rate. The latter allowed us to calculate the reproduction number. Results The mathematical model adequately reproduced the data, indicating a higher quarantine rate when quarantine was imposed by the health authority, with a corresponding decrease in the reproduction number of the virus down to values that prevent or decrease its exponential spread. In general, during this second stage, the communes with the lowest social priority indices had the highest quarantine rates, and therefore, the lowest effective viral reproduction numbers. This study provides useful evidence to address the health inequity of pandemics. The mathematical model applied here can be used in other regions or easily modified for other cases of infectious disease control by quarantine.https://peerj.com/articles/14892.pdfReproduction numberCOVID-19Differential equationsSocial inequalityQuarantineLockdown |
| spellingShingle | Dino G. Salinas M. Leonor Bustamante Mauricio O. Gallardo Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index PeerJ Reproduction number COVID-19 Differential equations Social inequality Quarantine Lockdown |
| title | Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index |
| title_full | Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index |
| title_fullStr | Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index |
| title_short | Modelling quarantine effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological dynamics in Chilean communes and their relationship with the Social Priority Index |
| title_sort | modelling quarantine effects on sars cov 2 epidemiological dynamics in chilean communes and their relationship with the social priority index |
| topic | Reproduction number COVID-19 Differential equations Social inequality Quarantine Lockdown |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/14892.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dinogsalinas modellingquarantineeffectsonsarscov2epidemiologicaldynamicsinchileancommunesandtheirrelationshipwiththesocialpriorityindex AT mleonorbustamante modellingquarantineeffectsonsarscov2epidemiologicaldynamicsinchileancommunesandtheirrelationshipwiththesocialpriorityindex AT mauricioogallardo modellingquarantineeffectsonsarscov2epidemiologicaldynamicsinchileancommunesandtheirrelationshipwiththesocialpriorityindex |