Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions across industries worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic on the sales performance of basic commercial areas in Seoul, Korea. Using a regression analysis with credit card transaction data, the study undersco...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
2024-03-01
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| Series: | East Asian Economic Review |
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431 |
| _version_ | 1797221556486668288 |
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| author | Hongjai Rhee |
| author_facet | Hongjai Rhee |
| author_sort | Hongjai Rhee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions across industries worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic on the sales performance of basic commercial areas in Seoul, Korea. Using a regression analysis with credit card transaction data, the study underscores the critical nature of determining the reference point for comparison. Firstly, in comparison to the revenue in the same quarter before the onset of the pandemic, a significant decrease in revenue was observed across most categories during the pandemic periods. Secondly, when compared to the counterfactual revenue in the same period, extrapolated by an exponential smoothing forecasting, the overall revenue decrease during the periods was less pronounced, except in a few categories. Interestingly, certain categories appeared to witness marginal increases in sales after the pandemic. The paper discusses some policy implications of these findings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:07:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6b7d75e2d6eb46edbc9a24256d7f97d8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2508-1640 2508-1667 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T13:07:19Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Korea Institute for International Economic Policy |
| record_format | Article |
| series | East Asian Economic Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-6b7d75e2d6eb46edbc9a24256d7f97d82024-04-05T07:14:05ZengKorea Institute for International Economic PolicyEast Asian Economic Review2508-16402508-16672024-03-01281699410.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual AnalysisHongjai Rhee0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2554-3461Ajou UniversityThe Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions across industries worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic on the sales performance of basic commercial areas in Seoul, Korea. Using a regression analysis with credit card transaction data, the study underscores the critical nature of determining the reference point for comparison. Firstly, in comparison to the revenue in the same quarter before the onset of the pandemic, a significant decrease in revenue was observed across most categories during the pandemic periods. Secondly, when compared to the counterfactual revenue in the same period, extrapolated by an exponential smoothing forecasting, the overall revenue decrease during the periods was less pronounced, except in a few categories. Interestingly, certain categories appeared to witness marginal increases in sales after the pandemic. The paper discusses some policy implications of these findings.https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431covid-19counterfactual analysisintervention policy |
| spellingShingle | Hongjai Rhee Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis East Asian Economic Review covid-19 counterfactual analysis intervention policy |
| title | Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis |
| title_full | Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis |
| title_short | Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis |
| title_sort | assessing the economic impact of covid 19 through a counterfactual analysis |
| topic | covid-19 counterfactual analysis intervention policy |
| url | https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hongjairhee assessingtheeconomicimpactofcovid19throughacounterfactualanalysis |