Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change
Climate change has a direct impact on biodiversity, affecting ecosystems and altering their balance. Many taxa, including insects, are likely to be affected by climate change in terms of geographic distribution. Sarcophagid flies, such as <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga hae...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Diversity |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/15/8/903 |
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| author | Areej A. Al-Khalaf Mohamed G. Nasser Eslam M. Hosni |
| author_facet | Areej A. Al-Khalaf Mohamed G. Nasser Eslam M. Hosni |
| author_sort | Areej A. Al-Khalaf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change has a direct impact on biodiversity, affecting ecosystems and altering their balance. Many taxa, including insects, are likely to be affected by climate change in terms of geographic distribution. Sarcophagid flies, such as <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i>, are important flies because of their apparent ecological, forensic, and medical significance. Global habitat suitability varies as a result of climate change. In wildlife management, models that predict species’ spatial distribution are being used more and more, which emphasizes the need for reliable methods to evaluate their accuracy. Consequently, the statistical robustness of maximum entropy was implemented in Maxent to model the current and future global distribution of both flies, involving occurrence data of 155 and 87 points for <i>S. dux</i> and <i>S. haemorrhoidalis</i>, respectively. Based on the Pearson correlation and Jackknife test, five bioclimatic variables were used for current and future predictive models. For future models, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070 were applied. Both statistical parameters, AUC and TSS, were used to assess the resulting models with values equal to 0.80 (±0.01) and 0.9, respectively, for <i>S. dux</i> and equal to 0.86 (±0.01) and 0.92 for <i>S. haemorrhoidalis</i>. The resulting models for <i>S. dux</i> showed high and very high suitability in Europe, Tropical Africa, India, Canada, the United States from Alaska to Florida, Brazil, and Australia. In the case of <i>S. haemorrhoidalis</i> Europe and North and South America displayed low to medium suitability, but North Africa, including Egypt; Tropical Africa; Asia, including Saudi Arabia, India, and China; and Australia showed increased suitability. Decision-makers are put in conflict with their duties to avert destruction in the economic, medical, and ecological sectors by such anticipated models, and use these predictive models as a cornerstone for building a control strategy for such forensically important flies at local spatial scales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:00:15Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1424-2818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:00:15Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-6b8aa89a88074626b75cbc254bdbc5062023-11-19T00:49:26ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182023-07-0115890310.3390/d15080903Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate ChangeAreej A. Al-Khalaf0Mohamed G. Nasser1Eslam M. Hosni2Biology Department, College of Science, Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh 11671, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, EgyptDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, EgyptClimate change has a direct impact on biodiversity, affecting ecosystems and altering their balance. Many taxa, including insects, are likely to be affected by climate change in terms of geographic distribution. Sarcophagid flies, such as <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i>, are important flies because of their apparent ecological, forensic, and medical significance. Global habitat suitability varies as a result of climate change. In wildlife management, models that predict species’ spatial distribution are being used more and more, which emphasizes the need for reliable methods to evaluate their accuracy. Consequently, the statistical robustness of maximum entropy was implemented in Maxent to model the current and future global distribution of both flies, involving occurrence data of 155 and 87 points for <i>S. dux</i> and <i>S. haemorrhoidalis</i>, respectively. Based on the Pearson correlation and Jackknife test, five bioclimatic variables were used for current and future predictive models. For future models, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070 were applied. Both statistical parameters, AUC and TSS, were used to assess the resulting models with values equal to 0.80 (±0.01) and 0.9, respectively, for <i>S. dux</i> and equal to 0.86 (±0.01) and 0.92 for <i>S. haemorrhoidalis</i>. The resulting models for <i>S. dux</i> showed high and very high suitability in Europe, Tropical Africa, India, Canada, the United States from Alaska to Florida, Brazil, and Australia. In the case of <i>S. haemorrhoidalis</i> Europe and North and South America displayed low to medium suitability, but North Africa, including Egypt; Tropical Africa; Asia, including Saudi Arabia, India, and China; and Australia showed increased suitability. Decision-makers are put in conflict with their duties to avert destruction in the economic, medical, and ecological sectors by such anticipated models, and use these predictive models as a cornerstone for building a control strategy for such forensically important flies at local spatial scales.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/15/8/903climate changemaxentspecies distribution modelingSarcophagid fliesmyiasis |
| spellingShingle | Areej A. Al-Khalaf Mohamed G. Nasser Eslam M. Hosni Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change Diversity climate change maxent species distribution modeling Sarcophagid flies myiasis |
| title | Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change |
| title_full | Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change |
| title_short | Global Potential Distribution of <i>Sarcophaga dux</i> and <i>Sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis</i> under Climate Change |
| title_sort | global potential distribution of i sarcophaga dux i and i sarcophaga haemorrhoidalis i under climate change |
| topic | climate change maxent species distribution modeling Sarcophagid flies myiasis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/15/8/903 |
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