Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany
<p>We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry regi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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‘Marin Drăcea’ National Research-Development Institute in Forestry
2017-07-01
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| Series: | Annals of Forest Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.afrjournal.org/index.php/afr/article/view/789 |
| _version_ | 1811295227068022784 |
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| author | Helge Walentowski Wolfgang Falk Tobias Mette Jörg Kunz Achim Bräuning Cathrin Meinardus Christian Zang Laura M.E. Sutcliffe Christoph Leuschner |
| author_facet | Helge Walentowski Wolfgang Falk Tobias Mette Jörg Kunz Achim Bräuning Cathrin Meinardus Christian Zang Laura M.E. Sutcliffe Christoph Leuschner |
| author_sort | Helge Walentowski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs) using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA) from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea), whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted) is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:29:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6bf8dc5c937d4a3c8a42c7a6b03f7ee8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1844-8135 2065-2445 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:29:27Z |
| publishDate | 2017-07-01 |
| publisher | ‘Marin Drăcea’ National Research-Development Institute in Forestry |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Annals of Forest Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-6bf8dc5c937d4a3c8a42c7a6b03f7ee82022-12-22T03:00:29Zeng‘Marin Drăcea’ National Research-Development Institute in ForestryAnnals of Forest Research1844-81352065-24452017-07-0160110112610.15287/afr.2016.789279Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern GermanyHelge Walentowski0Wolfgang Falk1Tobias Mette2Jörg Kunz3Achim Bräuning4Cathrin Meinardus5Christian Zang6Laura M.E. Sutcliffe7Christoph Leuschner8University of Applied Sciences and Arts Hildesheim/Holzminden/Göttingen, Faculty of Resource Management, Büsgenweg 1a, 37077 Göttingen, GermanyBavarian Forestry Institute LWF, Department of Soil and Climate, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, 85354 Freising & Institute of Geoecology, Dept. of Environmental System Analysis, TU Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, 38106 Braunschweig, GermanyInstitute of Geoecology, Department of Environmental System Analysis, TU Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, 38106 Braunschweig, GermanyDepartment of Silviculture, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwig-University Freiburg, Tennenbacherstraße 4, 79106 Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, GermanyInstitute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Wetterkreuz 15, 91058 Erlangen, GermanyInstitute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Wetterkreuz 15, 91058 Erlangen, GermanyLand Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, GermanyDepartment of Plant Ecology and Ecosystem Research, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Untere Karspüle 2, 37073 Göttingen, GermanyDepartment of Plant Ecology and Ecosystem Research, Georg-August-University Göttingen, Untere Karspüle 2, 37073 Göttingen, Germany<p>We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs) using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA) from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea), whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted) is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.</p>https://www.afrjournal.org/index.php/afr/article/view/789broadleaf forests, climate modelling, dendrochronology, drought tolerance, ecological niche, ellenberg indicator values |
| spellingShingle | Helge Walentowski Wolfgang Falk Tobias Mette Jörg Kunz Achim Bräuning Cathrin Meinardus Christian Zang Laura M.E. Sutcliffe Christoph Leuschner Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany Annals of Forest Research broadleaf forests, climate modelling, dendrochronology, drought tolerance, ecological niche, ellenberg indicator values |
| title | Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany |
| title_full | Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany |
| title_fullStr | Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany |
| title_short | Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany |
| title_sort | assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods a case study in southern germany |
| topic | broadleaf forests, climate modelling, dendrochronology, drought tolerance, ecological niche, ellenberg indicator values |
| url | https://www.afrjournal.org/index.php/afr/article/view/789 |
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