Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula
Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targe...
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MDPI AG
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/10/1094 |
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| author | Hyun Min Sung Jisun Kim Sungbo Shim Jong-Chul Ha Young-Hwa Byun Yeon-Hee Kim |
| author_facet | Hyun Min Sung Jisun Kim Sungbo Shim Jong-Chul Ha Young-Hwa Byun Yeon-Hee Kim |
| author_sort | Hyun Min Sung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 °C (T15), 2.0 °C (T20), and 3.0 °C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:27:54Z |
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| id | doaj.art-6bfb1c4d741e451bb70601880ccbc708 |
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| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:27:54Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-6bfb1c4d741e451bb70601880ccbc7082023-11-22T18:45:26ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122021-10-01910109410.3390/jmse9101094Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea PeninsulaHyun Min Sung0Jisun Kim1Sungbo Shim2Jong-Chul Ha3Young-Hwa Byun4Yeon-Hee Kim5Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo 63568, KoreaInnovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo 63568, KoreaEstimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 °C (T15), 2.0 °C (T20), and 3.0 °C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/10/1094Korean peninsulasea level riseclimate change1.5 °C warmingemergence of climate change |
| spellingShingle | Hyun Min Sung Jisun Kim Sungbo Shim Jong-Chul Ha Young-Hwa Byun Yeon-Hee Kim Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Korean peninsula sea level rise climate change 1.5 °C warming emergence of climate change |
| title | Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula |
| title_full | Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula |
| title_fullStr | Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula |
| title_short | Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula |
| title_sort | sea level rise drivers and projections from coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 cmip6 under the paris climate targets global and around the korea peninsula |
| topic | Korean peninsula sea level rise climate change 1.5 °C warming emergence of climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/10/1094 |
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