Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions
Compartmental equations are primary tools in the study of disease spreading processes. They provide accurate predictions for large populations but poor results whenever the integer nature of the number of agents is evident. In the latter instance, uncertainties are relevant factors for pathogen tran...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
The Royal Society
2020-02-01
|
| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.191504 |
| _version_ | 1818187714402451456 |
|---|---|
| author | Gilberto M. Nakamura George C. Cardoso Alexandre S. Martinez |
| author_facet | Gilberto M. Nakamura George C. Cardoso Alexandre S. Martinez |
| author_sort | Gilberto M. Nakamura |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Compartmental equations are primary tools in the study of disease spreading processes. They provide accurate predictions for large populations but poor results whenever the integer nature of the number of agents is evident. In the latter instance, uncertainties are relevant factors for pathogen transmission. Starting from the agent-based approach, we investigate the role of uncertainties and autocorrelation functions in the susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, including their relationship with epidemiological variables. We find new differential equations that take uncertainties into account. The findings provide improved equations, offering new insights on disease spreading processes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T23:15:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6c14f7ddb1254d5d8475f2a4422b9a8e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T23:15:25Z |
| publishDate | 2020-02-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-6c14f7ddb1254d5d8475f2a4422b9a8e2022-12-22T00:46:33ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032020-02-017210.1098/rsos.191504191504Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functionsGilberto M. NakamuraGeorge C. CardosoAlexandre S. MartinezCompartmental equations are primary tools in the study of disease spreading processes. They provide accurate predictions for large populations but poor results whenever the integer nature of the number of agents is evident. In the latter instance, uncertainties are relevant factors for pathogen transmission. Starting from the agent-based approach, we investigate the role of uncertainties and autocorrelation functions in the susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, including their relationship with epidemiological variables. We find new differential equations that take uncertainties into account. The findings provide improved equations, offering new insights on disease spreading processes.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.191504stochastic processepidemic modelsmonte carlofluctuations |
| spellingShingle | Gilberto M. Nakamura George C. Cardoso Alexandre S. Martinez Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions Royal Society Open Science stochastic process epidemic models monte carlo fluctuations |
| title | Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions |
| title_full | Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions |
| title_fullStr | Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions |
| title_short | Improved susceptible–infectious–susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions |
| title_sort | improved susceptible infectious susceptible epidemic equations based on uncertainties and autocorrelation functions |
| topic | stochastic process epidemic models monte carlo fluctuations |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.191504 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gilbertomnakamura improvedsusceptibleinfectioussusceptibleepidemicequationsbasedonuncertaintiesandautocorrelationfunctions AT georgeccardoso improvedsusceptibleinfectioussusceptibleepidemicequationsbasedonuncertaintiesandautocorrelationfunctions AT alexandresmartinez improvedsusceptibleinfectioussusceptibleepidemicequationsbasedonuncertaintiesandautocorrelationfunctions |