Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt
Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitiv...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PeerJ Inc.
2018-04-01
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| Series: | PeerJ |
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/4618.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797424183644258304 |
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| author | Andrea González-Fernández Javier Manjarrez Uri García-Vázquez Maristella D’Addario Armando Sunny |
| author_facet | Andrea González-Fernández Javier Manjarrez Uri García-Vázquez Maristella D’Addario Armando Sunny |
| author_sort | Andrea González-Fernández |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:57:35Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:57:35Z |
| publishDate | 2018-04-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
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| spelling | doaj.art-6c62918efcaf41caa14bac5ed01c5c032023-12-03T00:51:05ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592018-04-016e461810.7717/peerj.4618Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic BeltAndrea González-Fernández0Javier Manjarrez1Uri García-Vázquez2Maristella D’Addario3Armando Sunny4Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, Estado de México, MéxicoFacultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, Estado de México, MéxicoFacultad de Estudios Superiores Zaragoza, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, MéxicoCentro de Investigación en Ciencias Biológicas Aplicadas, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, Estado de México, MéxicoCentro de Investigación en Ciencias Biológicas Aplicadas, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, Estado de México, MéxicoLand use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB.https://peerj.com/articles/4618.pdfClimate changeEnvironmental niche modelsThamnophisPotential distributionLand-use change |
| spellingShingle | Andrea González-Fernández Javier Manjarrez Uri García-Vázquez Maristella D’Addario Armando Sunny Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt PeerJ Climate change Environmental niche models Thamnophis Potential distribution Land-use change |
| title | Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt |
| title_full | Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt |
| title_fullStr | Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt |
| title_short | Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt |
| title_sort | present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the trans mexican volcanic belt |
| topic | Climate change Environmental niche models Thamnophis Potential distribution Land-use change |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/4618.pdf |
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