Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios.
Climate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologic...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262540 |
| _version_ | 1811306807048536064 |
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| author | Wenliang Geng Yanyan Li Dongqi Sun Bin Li Pengyan Zhang Hao Chang Tianqi Rong Ying Liu Jingwen Shao Zhenyue Liu Huiru Zhu Yuanyuan Lou Qianqian Wang Jinbing Zhang |
| author_facet | Wenliang Geng Yanyan Li Dongqi Sun Bin Li Pengyan Zhang Hao Chang Tianqi Rong Ying Liu Jingwen Shao Zhenyue Liu Huiru Zhu Yuanyuan Lou Qianqian Wang Jinbing Zhang |
| author_sort | Wenliang Geng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologically sustainable development. Betula platyphylla Suk. is one of the most widely distributed temperate deciduous tree species in East Asia and has important economic and ecological value. Based on 231 species distribution data points of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China and 37 bioclimatic, soil, and topography variables (with correlation coefficients < 0.75), the potential geographical distribution pattern of Betula platyphylla Suk. under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios at present and in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted using the MaxEnt model. We analyzed the main environmental variables affecting the distribution and change of suitable areas and compared the scope and change of suitable areas under different climate scenarios. This study found: (1) At present, the main suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. extends from northeastern to southwestern China, with the periphery area showing fragmented distribution. (2) Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the dominant environmental variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. (3) The suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. is expected to expand under global warming scenarios. In recent years, due to the impact of diseases and insect infestation, and environmental damage, the natural Betula platyphylla Suk. forest in China has gradually narrowed. This study accurately predicted the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. under current and future climate change scenarios, which can provide the scientific basis for the cultivation, management, and sustainable utilization of Betula platyphylla Suk. resources. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:52:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6c84184ae2584edb8a99cd33c03a1f83 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T08:52:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-6c84184ae2584edb8a99cd33c03a1f832022-12-22T02:53:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01173e026254010.1371/journal.pone.0262540Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios.Wenliang GengYanyan LiDongqi SunBin LiPengyan ZhangHao ChangTianqi RongYing LiuJingwen ShaoZhenyue LiuHuiru ZhuYuanyuan LouQianqian WangJinbing ZhangClimate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologically sustainable development. Betula platyphylla Suk. is one of the most widely distributed temperate deciduous tree species in East Asia and has important economic and ecological value. Based on 231 species distribution data points of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China and 37 bioclimatic, soil, and topography variables (with correlation coefficients < 0.75), the potential geographical distribution pattern of Betula platyphylla Suk. under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios at present and in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted using the MaxEnt model. We analyzed the main environmental variables affecting the distribution and change of suitable areas and compared the scope and change of suitable areas under different climate scenarios. This study found: (1) At present, the main suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. extends from northeastern to southwestern China, with the periphery area showing fragmented distribution. (2) Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the dominant environmental variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. (3) The suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. is expected to expand under global warming scenarios. In recent years, due to the impact of diseases and insect infestation, and environmental damage, the natural Betula platyphylla Suk. forest in China has gradually narrowed. This study accurately predicted the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. under current and future climate change scenarios, which can provide the scientific basis for the cultivation, management, and sustainable utilization of Betula platyphylla Suk. resources.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262540 |
| spellingShingle | Wenliang Geng Yanyan Li Dongqi Sun Bin Li Pengyan Zhang Hao Chang Tianqi Rong Ying Liu Jingwen Shao Zhenyue Liu Huiru Zhu Yuanyuan Lou Qianqian Wang Jinbing Zhang Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. PLoS ONE |
| title | Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. |
| title_full | Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. |
| title_short | Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China under climate change scenarios. |
| title_sort | prediction of the potential geographical distribution of betula platyphylla suk in china under climate change scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262540 |
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