Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS
Control of the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The tr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2004-07-01
|
| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0647_article |
| _version_ | 1811226898103009280 |
|---|---|
| author | Gerardo Chowell Carlos Castillo-Chavez Paul W. Fenimore Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta Leon Arriola James M. Hyman |
| author_facet | Gerardo Chowell Carlos Castillo-Chavez Paul W. Fenimore Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta Leon Arriola James M. Hyman |
| author_sort | Gerardo Chowell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Control of the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the largest fractional effect on R0. We estimated the distribution of the reproductive number R0 under perfect isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile range 0.19–1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the median of R0 is <1, we found that 25% of our R0 distribution lies at R0 > 1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the need to simultaneously apply more than one method of control. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:33:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6caa8c3abbda4b51a57f7ee50c56a73d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:33:34Z |
| publishDate | 2004-07-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-6caa8c3abbda4b51a57f7ee50c56a73d2022-12-22T03:38:18ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592004-07-011071258126310.3201/eid1007.030647Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARSGerardo ChowellCarlos Castillo-ChavezPaul W. FenimoreChristopher M. Kribs-ZaletaLeon ArriolaJames M. HymanControl of the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the largest fractional effect on R0. We estimated the distribution of the reproductive number R0 under perfect isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile range 0.19–1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the median of R0 is <1, we found that 25% of our R0 distribution lies at R0 > 1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the need to simultaneously apply more than one method of control.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0647_articleSARSuncertaintysensitivitydiagnosisisolationreproductive number |
| spellingShingle | Gerardo Chowell Carlos Castillo-Chavez Paul W. Fenimore Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta Leon Arriola James M. Hyman Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS Emerging Infectious Diseases SARS uncertainty sensitivity diagnosis isolation reproductive number |
| title | Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS |
| title_full | Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS |
| title_fullStr | Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS |
| title_full_unstemmed | Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS |
| title_short | Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS |
| title_sort | model parameters and outbreak control for sars |
| topic | SARS uncertainty sensitivity diagnosis isolation reproductive number |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0647_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gerardochowell modelparametersandoutbreakcontrolforsars AT carloscastillochavez modelparametersandoutbreakcontrolforsars AT paulwfenimore modelparametersandoutbreakcontrolforsars AT christophermkribszaleta modelparametersandoutbreakcontrolforsars AT leonarriola modelparametersandoutbreakcontrolforsars AT jamesmhyman modelparametersandoutbreakcontrolforsars |