Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016
May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9691 |
| _version_ | 1797748210326831104 |
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| author | Chunxiang Li Qinhua Tian Rong Yu Baiquan Zhou Jiangjiang Xia Claire Burke Buwen Dong Simon F B Tett Nicolas Freychet Fraser Lott Andrew Ciavarella |
| author_facet | Chunxiang Li Qinhua Tian Rong Yu Baiquan Zhou Jiangjiang Xia Claire Burke Buwen Dong Simon F B Tett Nicolas Freychet Fraser Lott Andrew Ciavarella |
| author_sort | Chunxiang Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme weather and climate events. Results indicate that there is a significant increase in May 2016 rainfall in model simulations relative to the climatological period, but this increase is largely attributable to natural variability. El Niño years have been found to be correlated with extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River region in previous studies—the strong El Niño of 2015–2016 may account for the extreme precipitation event in 2016. However, on smaller spatial scales we find that anthropogenic forcing has likely played a role in increasing the risk of extreme rainfall to the north of the Yangtze and decreasing it to the south. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6cf861f3302f41368021e94d51f06eb8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:38Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6cf861f3302f41368021e94d51f06eb82023-08-09T14:35:36ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113101401510.1088/1748-9326/aa9691Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016Chunxiang Li0Qinhua Tian1Rong Yu2Baiquan Zhou3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-5336Jiangjiang Xia4Claire Burke5Buwen Dong6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911Simon F B Tett7https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7526-560XNicolas Freychet8https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2207-4425Fraser Lott9Andrew Ciavarella10CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology , Nanjing 210044State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaMet Office Hadley Centre , Met Office, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , United KingdomSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Met Office, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Met Office, United KingdomMay 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme weather and climate events. Results indicate that there is a significant increase in May 2016 rainfall in model simulations relative to the climatological period, but this increase is largely attributable to natural variability. El Niño years have been found to be correlated with extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River region in previous studies—the strong El Niño of 2015–2016 may account for the extreme precipitation event in 2016. However, on smaller spatial scales we find that anthropogenic forcing has likely played a role in increasing the risk of extreme rainfall to the north of the Yangtze and decreasing it to the south.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9691extreme rainfallextreme event attributionEl Niñorisk ratioanthropogenic influence |
| spellingShingle | Chunxiang Li Qinhua Tian Rong Yu Baiquan Zhou Jiangjiang Xia Claire Burke Buwen Dong Simon F B Tett Nicolas Freychet Fraser Lott Andrew Ciavarella Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016 Environmental Research Letters extreme rainfall extreme event attribution El Niño risk ratio anthropogenic influence |
| title | Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016 |
| title_full | Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016 |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016 |
| title_short | Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016 |
| title_sort | attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the yangtze river during may 2016 |
| topic | extreme rainfall extreme event attribution El Niño risk ratio anthropogenic influence |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9691 |
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