Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate
The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/239/2016/nhess-16-239-2016.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818965550482587648 |
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| author | I. Lehtonen A. Venäläinen M. Kämäräinen H. Peltola H. Gregow |
| author_facet | I. Lehtonen A. Venäläinen M. Kämäräinen H. Peltola H. Gregow |
| author_sort | I. Lehtonen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change
on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale
fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the
inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this
purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and
consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data
from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled
onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before
performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and
fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our
results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even
triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of
the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost
extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the
rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large
uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We
moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a
relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI
correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later
in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T13:18:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6d231ebc8f4f4d30912dd93242b68beb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T13:18:47Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-6d231ebc8f4f4d30912dd93242b68beb2022-12-21T19:39:28ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812016-01-0116123925310.5194/nhess-16-239-2016Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climateI. Lehtonen0A. Venäläinen1M. Kämäräinen2H. Peltola3H. Gregow4Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandUniversity of Eastern Finland, School of Forest Sciences, Joensuu, FinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, FinlandThe target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/239/2016/nhess-16-239-2016.pdf |
| spellingShingle | I. Lehtonen A. Venäläinen M. Kämäräinen H. Peltola H. Gregow Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate |
| title_full | Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate |
| title_fullStr | Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate |
| title_short | Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate |
| title_sort | risk of large scale fires in boreal forests of finland under changing climate |
| url | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/239/2016/nhess-16-239-2016.pdf |
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