Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin
Abstract Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00910-6 |
| _version_ | 1827899616268386304 |
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| author | Mukund Palat Rao Nicole K. Davi Troy S. Magney Laia Andreu-Hayles Baatarbileg Nachin Byambagerel Suran Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke Benjamin I. Cook Rosanne D. D’Arrigo Neil Pederson Lkhagvajargal Odrentsen Milagros Rodríguez-Catón Caroline Leland Jargalan Burentogtokh William R. M. Gardner Kevin L. Griffin |
| author_facet | Mukund Palat Rao Nicole K. Davi Troy S. Magney Laia Andreu-Hayles Baatarbileg Nachin Byambagerel Suran Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke Benjamin I. Cook Rosanne D. D’Arrigo Neil Pederson Lkhagvajargal Odrentsen Milagros Rodríguez-Catón Caroline Leland Jargalan Burentogtokh William R. M. Gardner Kevin L. Griffin |
| author_sort | Mukund Palat Rao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (Tcrit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25th percentile of Larix sibirica’s Tcrit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:20:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6d8b0f28b4d145d39dceab41407858ff |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T23:20:20Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-6d8b0f28b4d145d39dceab41407858ff2023-07-16T11:29:13ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-07-014111010.1038/s43247-023-00910-6Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern marginMukund Palat Rao0Nicole K. Davi1Troy S. Magney2Laia Andreu-Hayles3Baatarbileg Nachin4Byambagerel Suran5Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke6Benjamin I. Cook7Rosanne D. D’Arrigo8Neil Pederson9Lkhagvajargal Odrentsen10Milagros Rodríguez-Catón11Caroline Leland12Jargalan Burentogtokh13William R. M. Gardner14Kevin L. Griffin15CREAF, Cerdanyola del VallesTree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityDepartment of Plant Sciences, University of California DavisCREAF, Cerdanyola del VallesTree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityInstitute of Forestry, National University of MongoliaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Science, Columbia UniversityOcean & Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityTree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityTree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityGraduate School, National University of MongoliaDepartment of Plant Sciences, University of California DavisTree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityDepartment of Anthropology, Yale UniversityDepartment of Anthropology, Yale UniversityDepartment of Environment and Forest Engineering, National University of MongoliaAbstract Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (Tcrit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25th percentile of Larix sibirica’s Tcrit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00910-6 |
| spellingShingle | Mukund Palat Rao Nicole K. Davi Troy S. Magney Laia Andreu-Hayles Baatarbileg Nachin Byambagerel Suran Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke Benjamin I. Cook Rosanne D. D’Arrigo Neil Pederson Lkhagvajargal Odrentsen Milagros Rodríguez-Catón Caroline Leland Jargalan Burentogtokh William R. M. Gardner Kevin L. Griffin Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin |
| title_full | Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin |
| title_fullStr | Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin |
| title_short | Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin |
| title_sort | approaching a thermal tipping point in the eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00910-6 |
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