Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system
Abstract Aircraft can report in situ observations of the ambient temperature by using aircraft meteorological data relay (AMDAR) or these can be derived using mode‐select enhanced tracking data (Mode‐S EHS). These observations may be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1029 |
| _version_ | 1819138702566227968 |
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| author | Andrew K. Mirza Sarah L. Dance Gabriel G. Rooney David Simonin Edmund K. Stone Joanne A. Waller |
| author_facet | Andrew K. Mirza Sarah L. Dance Gabriel G. Rooney David Simonin Edmund K. Stone Joanne A. Waller |
| author_sort | Andrew K. Mirza |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Aircraft can report in situ observations of the ambient temperature by using aircraft meteorological data relay (AMDAR) or these can be derived using mode‐select enhanced tracking data (Mode‐S EHS). These observations may be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve the initial conditions for forecasts. The assimilation process weights the observation according to the expected uncertainty in its measurement and representation. The goal of this paper is to compare observation uncertainties diagnosed from data assimilation statistics with independent estimates. To quantify these independent estimates, we use metrological comparisons, made with in‐situ research‐grade instruments, as well as previous studies using collocation methods between aircraft (mostly AMDAR reports) and other observing systems such as radiosondes. In this study we diagnose a new estimate of the vertical structure of the uncertainty variances using observation‐minus‐background and observation‐minus‐analysis statistics from a Met Office limited area three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system (3 km horizontal grid‐length, 3‐hourly cycle). This approach for uncertainty estimation is simple to compute but has several limitations. Nevertheless, the resulting diagnosed variances have a vertical structure that is like that provided by the independent estimates of uncertainty. This provides confidence in the uncertainty estimation method, and in the diagnosed uncertainty estimates themselves. In the future our methodology, along with other results, could provide ways to estimate the uncertainty for the assimilation of aircraft‐based temperature observations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T11:10:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6dd1453da6bd4e278c07224edaaa2376 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T11:10:58Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6dd1453da6bd4e278c07224edaaa23762022-12-21T18:28:10ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2021-05-01225n/an/a10.1002/asl.1029Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation systemAndrew K. Mirza0Sarah L. Dance1Gabriel G. Rooney2David Simonin3Edmund K. Stone4Joanne A. Waller5School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences University of Reading Reading United KingdomSchool of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences University of Reading Reading United KingdomMet Office Exeter United KingdomMetOffice@Reading University of Reading Reading United KingdomMet Office Exeter United KingdomSchool of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences University of Reading Reading United KingdomAbstract Aircraft can report in situ observations of the ambient temperature by using aircraft meteorological data relay (AMDAR) or these can be derived using mode‐select enhanced tracking data (Mode‐S EHS). These observations may be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve the initial conditions for forecasts. The assimilation process weights the observation according to the expected uncertainty in its measurement and representation. The goal of this paper is to compare observation uncertainties diagnosed from data assimilation statistics with independent estimates. To quantify these independent estimates, we use metrological comparisons, made with in‐situ research‐grade instruments, as well as previous studies using collocation methods between aircraft (mostly AMDAR reports) and other observing systems such as radiosondes. In this study we diagnose a new estimate of the vertical structure of the uncertainty variances using observation‐minus‐background and observation‐minus‐analysis statistics from a Met Office limited area three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system (3 km horizontal grid‐length, 3‐hourly cycle). This approach for uncertainty estimation is simple to compute but has several limitations. Nevertheless, the resulting diagnosed variances have a vertical structure that is like that provided by the independent estimates of uncertainty. This provides confidence in the uncertainty estimation method, and in the diagnosed uncertainty estimates themselves. In the future our methodology, along with other results, could provide ways to estimate the uncertainty for the assimilation of aircraft‐based temperature observations.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1029aircraft‐based observationsAMDARdata assimilationestimation of observation uncertaintymeteorological instrumentsMode‐S |
| spellingShingle | Andrew K. Mirza Sarah L. Dance Gabriel G. Rooney David Simonin Edmund K. Stone Joanne A. Waller Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system Atmospheric Science Letters aircraft‐based observations AMDAR data assimilation estimation of observation uncertainty meteorological instruments Mode‐S |
| title | Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system |
| title_full | Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system |
| title_fullStr | Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system |
| title_short | Comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates: A case study using aircraft‐based observations and a convection‐permitting data assimilation system |
| title_sort | comparing diagnosed observation uncertainties with independent estimates a case study using aircraft based observations and a convection permitting data assimilation system |
| topic | aircraft‐based observations AMDAR data assimilation estimation of observation uncertainty meteorological instruments Mode‐S |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1029 |
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