Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices
In recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increas...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1054 |
| _version_ | 1797624751055699968 |
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| author | Pedro Leal Rui Castro Fernando Lopes |
| author_facet | Pedro Leal Rui Castro Fernando Lopes |
| author_sort | Pedro Leal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increasing generation of renewable power. This is important for both current and future investors, as it can affect profitability. To address these concerns, a long-term analysis is proposed here to examine the influence of the future electricity mix on Iberian electricity prices in 2030. In this study, we employed artificial intelligence forecasting models that incorporated the main electricity price-driven components of MIBEL, providing accurate predictions for the real operation of the market. These can be extrapolated into the future to predict electricity prices in a scenario with high renewable power penetration. The results, obtained considering a framework featuring an increase in the penetration of renewables into MIBEL of up to 80% in 2030, showed that electricity prices are expected to decrease by around 50% in 2030 when compared to 2019, and there will be a new pattern of electricity prices throughout the year due to the uneven distribution of renewable electricity. The study’s findings are relevant for ongoing research on the unique challenges of energy markets with high levels of renewable generation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T09:46:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6e1bec7939ae45bd8b65957461a35599 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T09:46:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-6e1bec7939ae45bd8b65957461a355992023-11-16T16:32:09ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732023-01-01163105410.3390/en16031054Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market PricesPedro Leal0Rui Castro1Fernando Lopes2Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, 1049-001 Lisbon, PortugalINESC-ID/IST, University of Lisbon, 1000-029 Lisbon, PortugalLNEG, National Laboratory of Energy and Geology, 1649-038 Lisbon, PortugalIn recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increasing generation of renewable power. This is important for both current and future investors, as it can affect profitability. To address these concerns, a long-term analysis is proposed here to examine the influence of the future electricity mix on Iberian electricity prices in 2030. In this study, we employed artificial intelligence forecasting models that incorporated the main electricity price-driven components of MIBEL, providing accurate predictions for the real operation of the market. These can be extrapolated into the future to predict electricity prices in a scenario with high renewable power penetration. The results, obtained considering a framework featuring an increase in the penetration of renewables into MIBEL of up to 80% in 2030, showed that electricity prices are expected to decrease by around 50% in 2030 when compared to 2019, and there will be a new pattern of electricity prices throughout the year due to the uneven distribution of renewable electricity. The study’s findings are relevant for ongoing research on the unique challenges of energy markets with high levels of renewable generation.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1054renewable energyelectricity market pricesmissing money problemlong-term forecastartificial neural networks |
| spellingShingle | Pedro Leal Rui Castro Fernando Lopes Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices Energies renewable energy electricity market prices missing money problem long-term forecast artificial neural networks |
| title | Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
| title_full | Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
| title_fullStr | Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
| title_short | Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market Prices |
| title_sort | influence of increasing renewable power penetration on the long term iberian electricity market prices |
| topic | renewable energy electricity market prices missing money problem long-term forecast artificial neural networks |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1054 |
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