Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation
The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-06-01
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| Series: | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.proc-iahs.net/370/21/2015/piahs-370-21-2015.pdf |
| Summary: | The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to
past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity
of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the
exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme
rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and
thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a
combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach
suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial
flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and
future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces
based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are
combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future
rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard
assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense.
Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has
increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year
rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of
40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can
play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also
for their adaptation to a changed climate. |
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| ISSN: | 2199-8981 2199-899X |