The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study
Summary: Background: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. Methods: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606522001250 |
| _version_ | 1811334560979353600 |
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| author | Carmen S. Ng Minnie Au Robyn Ma June Y.Y. Leung Jianchao Quan |
| author_facet | Carmen S. Ng Minnie Au Robyn Ma June Y.Y. Leung Jianchao Quan |
| author_sort | Carmen S. Ng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. Methods: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions. Findings: An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men. Interpretation: Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067]. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T17:10:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6e4985e129fb4fd0a9d5d8a1f9099184 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-6065 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T17:10:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific |
| spelling | doaj.art-6e4985e129fb4fd0a9d5d8a1f90991842022-12-22T02:38:17ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific2666-60652022-09-0126100510The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling studyCarmen S. Ng0Minnie Au1Robyn Ma2June Y.Y. Leung3Jianchao Quan4School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaSchool of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaSchool of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, ChinaSHORE & Whariki Research Centre, College of Health, Massey University, New ZealandSchool of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China; Corresponding author at: School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Patrick Manson Building, 7 Sassoon Road, Hong Kong SAR, China.Summary: Background: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. Methods: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions. Findings: An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men. Interpretation: Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067].http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606522001250AlcoholHealth policyPublic healthHealth economicsTaxBurden of disease |
| spellingShingle | Carmen S. Ng Minnie Au Robyn Ma June Y.Y. Leung Jianchao Quan The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific Alcohol Health policy Public health Health economics Tax Burden of disease |
| title | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
| title_full | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
| title_fullStr | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
| title_short | The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study |
| title_sort | impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in hong kong china a modelling study |
| topic | Alcohol Health policy Public health Health economics Tax Burden of disease |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606522001250 |
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