Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway
Counterfactual analysis of the impact of Covid-19 can be based on a solution of a macroeconomic model for a scenario without the coronavirus interfering with the macroeconomic system. Two measures of impact are introduced with the aid of a simple theoretical model, and then used in the empirical ana...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2023-01-01
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| Series: | National Accounting Review |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/NAR.2023001?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1797826907500183552 |
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| author | Ragnar Nymoen |
| author_facet | Ragnar Nymoen |
| author_sort | Ragnar Nymoen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Counterfactual analysis of the impact of Covid-19 can be based on a solution of a macroeconomic model for a scenario without the coronavirus interfering with the macroeconomic system. Two measures of impact are introduced with the aid of a simple theoretical model, and then used in the empirical analysis: (Ⅰ) The difference between the counterfactual without Covid-19 and a baseline model solution. (Ⅱ) The difference between the counterfactual and the actual development of the economy. In order to analyze the impact on GDP we use two model categories. First, empirical final form model equations, which were purpose-built with the aid of a machine learning algorithm. Second, an operational multiple-equation model of the Norwegian macroeconomic system. Empirically, we find a significant impact of Covid-19 on the GDP Mainland Norway in 2020. For some of the estimator/model combinations, the impacts are also significant in the two first quarters of 2021. Using the multiple-equation model, the assessment is extended to the impact of Covid-19 on value added in four Mainland Norway industries, on imports and exports, and on final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T12:39:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6e65dc5d15dd483f92f2d4a985c594cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2689-3010 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T12:39:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | National Accounting Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-6e65dc5d15dd483f92f2d4a985c594cd2023-05-15T01:32:01ZengAIMS PressNational Accounting Review2689-30102023-01-015112210.3934/NAR.2023001Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of NorwayRagnar Nymoen 0Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Blindern, P.O.Box 1095, Oslo, NorwayCounterfactual analysis of the impact of Covid-19 can be based on a solution of a macroeconomic model for a scenario without the coronavirus interfering with the macroeconomic system. Two measures of impact are introduced with the aid of a simple theoretical model, and then used in the empirical analysis: (Ⅰ) The difference between the counterfactual without Covid-19 and a baseline model solution. (Ⅱ) The difference between the counterfactual and the actual development of the economy. In order to analyze the impact on GDP we use two model categories. First, empirical final form model equations, which were purpose-built with the aid of a machine learning algorithm. Second, an operational multiple-equation model of the Norwegian macroeconomic system. Empirically, we find a significant impact of Covid-19 on the GDP Mainland Norway in 2020. For some of the estimator/model combinations, the impacts are also significant in the two first quarters of 2021. Using the multiple-equation model, the assessment is extended to the impact of Covid-19 on value added in four Mainland Norway industries, on imports and exports, and on final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/NAR.2023001?viewType=HTMLcovid-19simulation of impactcounterfactualunit-rootcointegrationstructural breaksparameter invariancepropagationmachine learningimpulse indicator saturation |
| spellingShingle | Ragnar Nymoen Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway National Accounting Review covid-19 simulation of impact counterfactual unit-root cointegration structural breaks parameter invariance propagation machine learning impulse indicator saturation |
| title | Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway |
| title_full | Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway |
| title_fullStr | Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway |
| title_short | Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway |
| title_sort | economic covid 19 effects analysed by macro econometric models the case of norway |
| topic | covid-19 simulation of impact counterfactual unit-root cointegration structural breaks parameter invariance propagation machine learning impulse indicator saturation |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/NAR.2023001?viewType=HTML |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ragnarnymoen economiccovid19effectsanalysedbymacroeconometricmodelsthecaseofnorway |