More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China
<p>Assessment of changes in hydrological droughts at specific warming levels is important for an adaptive water resources management with consideration of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most studies focused on the response of drought frequency to the warming and neglected other drought cha...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019-02-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/621/2019/hess-23-621-2019.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Assessment of changes in hydrological droughts at specific warming levels is
important for an adaptive water resources management with consideration of
the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most studies focused on the response of
drought frequency to the warming and neglected other drought characteristics,
including severity. By using a semiarid watershed in northern China (i.e.,
Wudinghe) as an example, here we show less frequent but more severe
hydrological drought events emerge at 1.5, 2 and 3 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming levels.
We used meteorological forcings from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 climate models under four representative concentration
pathways, to drive a newly developed land surface hydrological model to
simulate streamflow, and analyzed historical and future hydrological drought
characteristics based on the standardized streamflow index. The Wudinghe
watershed will reach the 1.5, 2 and 3 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming levels around
2015–2034, 2032–2051 and 2060–2079, with an increase in precipitation of
8 %, 9 % and 18 % and runoff of 27 %, 19 % and 44 %, and a drop
in hydrological drought frequency of 11 %, 26 % and 23 % as compared to the
baseline period (1986–2005). However, the drought severity will rise
dramatically by 184 %, 116 % and 184 %, which is mainly caused by the
increased variability in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The climate
models and the land surface hydrological model contribute to more than 80 %
of total uncertainties in the future projection of precipitation and
hydrological droughts. This study suggests that different aspects of
hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the
impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C global warming.</p> |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |