| Summary: | Background: Factors such as herd composition, productivity, milk quality and technology level influence the costs and profitability of milk production. Objective: To evaluate indicators that could predict production performance and financial efficiency in three dairy production systems in southern Brazil. Methods: Monthly records of milk quality, production performance and costs from fifty dairy farms were collected. The farms were classified into grazing, semi-feedlot, or feedlot systems. Total revenues, effective operational cost, total operational cost, total cost, gross margin, net income, total cost leveling point, profitability and final milk price were calculated. Results: The feedlot system resulted in greater herd size and milk production per lactating cow (p<0.05), but greater variable costs compared to semi-feedlot and grazing systems. On the other hand, the grazing system achieved greater profitability per year. Factor II (fat and protein rates), and Factor III (herd size and productivity per area) were associated with milk price per liter paid to the farmer (p<0.05), together accounting for approximately 13% of this price. Conclusion: Dairy production systems are influenced by area, lactating cows, productive performance, productivity per area, milk quality, and use of artificial insemination as well as supplementation (concentrate and minerals). Nearly 13% of milk price can be attributed to its fat and protein content as well as herd size and productivity per area.
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