The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change
The compact Earth system model OSCARv2.2 is used to assess the climate impact of present and future civil aviation carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) emissions. The impact of aviation CO _2 on future climate is quantified over the 1940–2050 period, extending some simulations to 2100 and using different aviatio...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3086 |
| _version_ | 1797747930784858112 |
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| author | E Terrenoire D A Hauglustaine T Gasser O Penanhoat |
| author_facet | E Terrenoire D A Hauglustaine T Gasser O Penanhoat |
| author_sort | E Terrenoire |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The compact Earth system model OSCARv2.2 is used to assess the climate impact of present and future civil aviation carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) emissions. The impact of aviation CO _2 on future climate is quantified over the 1940–2050 period, extending some simulations to 2100 and using different aviation CO _2 emission scenarios and two background Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) for other emission sectors. Several aviation scenarios including weak to strong mitigation options are considered with emissions ranging from 386 MtCO _2 /year (Factor 2 scenario) to 2338 MtCO _2 /year (ICAO based scenario) in 2050. As a reference, in 2000, the calculated impact of aviation CO _2 emissions is 9.1 ± 2 mK (0.8% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions). In 2050, on a climate trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement limiting the global warming below 2 °C (RCP2.6), the impact of the aviation CO _2 emissions ranges from 26 ± 2 mK (1.4% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for an ambitious mitigation strategy scenario (Factor 2) to 39 ± 4 mK (2.0% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for the least ambitious mitigation scenario of the study (ICAO based). On the longer term, if no significant emission mitigation is implemented for the aviation sector, the associated warming could further increase and reach a value of 99.5 mK ± 20 mK in 2100 (ICAO based), which corresponds to 5.2% of the total anthropogenic warming under RCP2.6. The contribution of CO _2 is estimated to represent 36%–51% of the total aviation radiative forcing of climate including short-term climate forcers. However, due to its long residence time in the atmosphere, aviation CO _2 will have a major contribution on decadal time scales. These additional short-terms forcers are subject to large uncertainties and will be analysed in forthcoming studies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f051803cd4649f8a60a9f549688df3c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:37Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f051803cd4649f8a60a9f549688df3c2023-08-09T14:44:58ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114808401910.1088/1748-9326/ab3086The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate changeE Terrenoire0D A Hauglustaine1T Gasser2O Penanhoat3Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Université Paris Saclay , Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Laboratoire Image Ville Environnement, Strasbourg, France; Now at DMPE, ONERA, Université Paris Saclay , Palaiseau, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Université Paris Saclay , Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaSAFRAN Aircraft Engines, Villaroche Center, Moissy Cramayel, FranceThe compact Earth system model OSCARv2.2 is used to assess the climate impact of present and future civil aviation carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) emissions. The impact of aviation CO _2 on future climate is quantified over the 1940–2050 period, extending some simulations to 2100 and using different aviation CO _2 emission scenarios and two background Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) for other emission sectors. Several aviation scenarios including weak to strong mitigation options are considered with emissions ranging from 386 MtCO _2 /year (Factor 2 scenario) to 2338 MtCO _2 /year (ICAO based scenario) in 2050. As a reference, in 2000, the calculated impact of aviation CO _2 emissions is 9.1 ± 2 mK (0.8% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions). In 2050, on a climate trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement limiting the global warming below 2 °C (RCP2.6), the impact of the aviation CO _2 emissions ranges from 26 ± 2 mK (1.4% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for an ambitious mitigation strategy scenario (Factor 2) to 39 ± 4 mK (2.0% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for the least ambitious mitigation scenario of the study (ICAO based). On the longer term, if no significant emission mitigation is implemented for the aviation sector, the associated warming could further increase and reach a value of 99.5 mK ± 20 mK in 2100 (ICAO based), which corresponds to 5.2% of the total anthropogenic warming under RCP2.6. The contribution of CO _2 is estimated to represent 36%–51% of the total aviation radiative forcing of climate including short-term climate forcers. However, due to its long residence time in the atmosphere, aviation CO _2 will have a major contribution on decadal time scales. These additional short-terms forcers are subject to large uncertainties and will be analysed in forthcoming studies.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3086aviationOSCARv2.2carbon dioxideclimate changecompact Earth system model (CESM) |
| spellingShingle | E Terrenoire D A Hauglustaine T Gasser O Penanhoat The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change Environmental Research Letters aviation OSCARv2.2 carbon dioxide climate change compact Earth system model (CESM) |
| title | The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change |
| title_full | The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change |
| title_fullStr | The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change |
| title_short | The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change |
| title_sort | contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change |
| topic | aviation OSCARv2.2 carbon dioxide climate change compact Earth system model (CESM) |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3086 |
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