Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains
In recent years, the climate in the arid region of Northwest China has become warmer and wetter; however, glaciers in the north slope of the West Kunlun Mountains (NSWKM) show no obvious recession, and river flow is decreasing or stable. This contrasts with the prevalent response of glaciers to clim...
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MDPI AG
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/11/2246 |
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| author | Xiaofei Ma Wei Yan Chengyi Zhao Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz |
| author_facet | Xiaofei Ma Wei Yan Chengyi Zhao Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz |
| author_sort | Xiaofei Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent years, the climate in the arid region of Northwest China has become warmer and wetter; however, glaciers in the north slope of the West Kunlun Mountains (NSWKM) show no obvious recession, and river flow is decreasing or stable. This contrasts with the prevalent response of glaciers to climate change, which is recession and initial increase in glacier discharge followed by decline as retreat continues. We comparatively analyzed multi-timescale variation in temperature−precipitation−snow cover-runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRK), Karakax River Basin (KRK), Yurungkax River Basin (YUK), and Keriya River Basin (KRY) in the NSWKM. The Mann−Kendall trend and the mutation−detection method were applied to data obtained from an observation station over the last 60 years (1957−2017) and MODIS snow data (2001−2016). NSWKM temperature and precipitation have continued to increase for nearly 60 years at a mean rate of 0.26 °C/decade and 5.50 mm/decade, respectively, with the most obvious trend (R<sup>2</sup> > 0.82) attributed to the KRK and YUK. Regarding changes in the average snow-cover fraction (SCF): YUK (SCF = 44.14%) > YRK (SCF = 38.73%) > KRY (SCF = 33.42%) > KRK (SCF = 33.40%). Between them, the YRK and YUK had decreasing SCA values (slope < −15.39), while the KRK and KRY had increasing SCA values (slope > 1.87). In seasonal variation, the SCF of the three of the basins reaches the maximum value in spring, with the most significant performance in YUK (SCF = 26.4%), except for YRK where SCF in spring was lower than that in winter (−2.6%). The runoff depth of all river basins presented an increasing trend, with the greatest value appearing in the YRK (5.78 mm/decade), and the least value in the YUK (1.58 mm/decade). With the runoff response to climate change, temperature was the main influencing factor of annual and monthly (summer) runoff variations in the YRK, which is consistent with the runoff-generation rule of rivers in arid areas, which mainly rely on ice and snow melt for water supply. However, this rule was not consistent for the YUK and KRK, as it was disturbed by other factors (e.g., slope and slope direction) during runoff generation, resulting in disruptions of their relationship with runoff. This research promotes the study of the response of cold and arid alpine regions to global change and thus better serve regional water resources management. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T17:13:58Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T17:13:58Z |
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| spelling | doaj.art-6f054e7592594a508af098490fc6ce1f2022-12-22T02:38:11ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412019-10-011111224610.3390/w11112246w11112246Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun MountainsXiaofei Ma0Wei Yan1Chengyi Zhao2Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz3State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaSchool of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, ChinaSchool of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaInstitute of Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 61819 Poznan, PolandIn recent years, the climate in the arid region of Northwest China has become warmer and wetter; however, glaciers in the north slope of the West Kunlun Mountains (NSWKM) show no obvious recession, and river flow is decreasing or stable. This contrasts with the prevalent response of glaciers to climate change, which is recession and initial increase in glacier discharge followed by decline as retreat continues. We comparatively analyzed multi-timescale variation in temperature−precipitation−snow cover-runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRK), Karakax River Basin (KRK), Yurungkax River Basin (YUK), and Keriya River Basin (KRY) in the NSWKM. The Mann−Kendall trend and the mutation−detection method were applied to data obtained from an observation station over the last 60 years (1957−2017) and MODIS snow data (2001−2016). NSWKM temperature and precipitation have continued to increase for nearly 60 years at a mean rate of 0.26 °C/decade and 5.50 mm/decade, respectively, with the most obvious trend (R<sup>2</sup> > 0.82) attributed to the KRK and YUK. Regarding changes in the average snow-cover fraction (SCF): YUK (SCF = 44.14%) > YRK (SCF = 38.73%) > KRY (SCF = 33.42%) > KRK (SCF = 33.40%). Between them, the YRK and YUK had decreasing SCA values (slope < −15.39), while the KRK and KRY had increasing SCA values (slope > 1.87). In seasonal variation, the SCF of the three of the basins reaches the maximum value in spring, with the most significant performance in YUK (SCF = 26.4%), except for YRK where SCF in spring was lower than that in winter (−2.6%). The runoff depth of all river basins presented an increasing trend, with the greatest value appearing in the YRK (5.78 mm/decade), and the least value in the YUK (1.58 mm/decade). With the runoff response to climate change, temperature was the main influencing factor of annual and monthly (summer) runoff variations in the YRK, which is consistent with the runoff-generation rule of rivers in arid areas, which mainly rely on ice and snow melt for water supply. However, this rule was not consistent for the YUK and KRK, as it was disturbed by other factors (e.g., slope and slope direction) during runoff generation, resulting in disruptions of their relationship with runoff. This research promotes the study of the response of cold and arid alpine regions to global change and thus better serve regional water resources management.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/11/2246climate changesnow coverrunoffmann–kendall testhydrologic analogykunlun mountains |
| spellingShingle | Xiaofei Ma Wei Yan Chengyi Zhao Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains Water climate change snow cover runoff mann–kendall test hydrologic analogy kunlun mountains |
| title | Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains |
| title_full | Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains |
| title_fullStr | Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains |
| title_full_unstemmed | Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains |
| title_short | Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains |
| title_sort | snow cover area and runoff variation under climate change in the west kunlun mountains |
| topic | climate change snow cover runoff mann–kendall test hydrologic analogy kunlun mountains |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/11/2246 |
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