CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability
Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea96 |
| _version_ | 1797752339649527808 |
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| author | Paul-Arthur Monerie Jon I Robson Cassien D Ndiaye Cenyao Song Andrew G Turner |
| author_facet | Paul-Arthur Monerie Jon I Robson Cassien D Ndiaye Cenyao Song Andrew G Turner |
| author_sort | Paul-Arthur Monerie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:01:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f15593f46434d78a8e7d93acd345e0a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:01:52Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f15593f46434d78a8e7d93acd345e0a2023-08-07T11:00:17ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118909400210.1088/1748-9326/acea96CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variabilityPaul-Arthur Monerie0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559Jon I Robson1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018XCassien D Ndiaye2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7091-1438Cenyao Song3Andrew G Turner4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876National Centre for Atmospheric Science , Reading, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science , Reading, United KingdomLPAO-SF/Cheikh Anta Diop University , Dakar, Senegal; LOCEAN/IPSL/Sorbonne University , Paris, FrancePreviously at Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science , Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomMonsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea96summer monsoon precipitationprediction systemsskillinterannual variabilitymulti-decadal variability |
| spellingShingle | Paul-Arthur Monerie Jon I Robson Cassien D Ndiaye Cenyao Song Andrew G Turner CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability Environmental Research Letters summer monsoon precipitation prediction systems skill interannual variability multi-decadal variability |
| title | CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability |
| title_full | CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability |
| title_fullStr | CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability |
| title_full_unstemmed | CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability |
| title_short | CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability |
| title_sort | cmip6 skill at predicting interannual to multi decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability |
| topic | summer monsoon precipitation prediction systems skill interannual variability multi-decadal variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea96 |
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