The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe
The economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicit...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3306 |
| _version_ | 1827870498829107200 |
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| author | E E Koks M Thissen L Alfieri H De Moel L Feyen B Jongman J C J H Aerts |
| author_facet | E E Koks M Thissen L Alfieri H De Moel L Feyen B Jongman J C J H Aerts |
| author_sort | E E Koks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicitly includes the indirect effects via regional economic interdependencies to model economic disaster losses on a continental scale, exemplified by river flooding in Europe. The results demonstrate that economic implications go beyond the direct damages typically considered. Moreover, we find that indirect losses can be offset by up to 60% by economic actors through finding alternative suppliers and markets within their existing trade relations. Towards the future, increases in economic flood losses (up to 350%) can be expected for all global warming scenarios. Indirect losses rise by 65% more compared to direct asset damages due to the increasing size of future flood events, making it more difficult to offset losses through alternative suppliers and markets. On a sectoral level, future increases in losses are highest for commercial services (∼980%) and public utilities (∼580%). As the latter are predominately affected through cascading effects, this highlights how interdependencies between economic actors could amplify future disaster losses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f1aa82cb8be416a92b276ee009ea8f7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:43Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f1aa82cb8be416a92b276ee009ea8f72023-08-09T14:46:48ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114808404210.1088/1748-9326/ab3306The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in EuropeE E Koks0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4953-4527M Thissen1L Alfieri2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3616-386XH De Moel3L Feyen4B Jongman5J C J H Aerts6Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford , Oxford, United KingdomNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The NetherlandsEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, ItalyInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, The NetherlandsNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The NetherlandsInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, The Netherlands; World Bank Group, Washington DC, United States of AmericaInstitute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Amsterdam, The NetherlandsThe economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicitly includes the indirect effects via regional economic interdependencies to model economic disaster losses on a continental scale, exemplified by river flooding in Europe. The results demonstrate that economic implications go beyond the direct damages typically considered. Moreover, we find that indirect losses can be offset by up to 60% by economic actors through finding alternative suppliers and markets within their existing trade relations. Towards the future, increases in economic flood losses (up to 350%) can be expected for all global warming scenarios. Indirect losses rise by 65% more compared to direct asset damages due to the increasing size of future flood events, making it more difficult to offset losses through alternative suppliers and markets. On a sectoral level, future increases in losses are highest for commercial services (∼980%) and public utilities (∼580%). As the latter are predominately affected through cascading effects, this highlights how interdependencies between economic actors could amplify future disaster losses.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3306climate changeeconomic impactsriver floodingdisaster risk |
| spellingShingle | E E Koks M Thissen L Alfieri H De Moel L Feyen B Jongman J C J H Aerts The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe Environmental Research Letters climate change economic impacts river flooding disaster risk |
| title | The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe |
| title_full | The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe |
| title_fullStr | The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe |
| title_short | The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe |
| title_sort | macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in europe |
| topic | climate change economic impacts river flooding disaster risk |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3306 |
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