Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation
The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.519324/full |
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| author | Stewart A. Jennings Ann-Kristin Koehler Kathryn J. Nicklin Chetan Deva Steven M. Sait Andrew J. Challinor |
| author_facet | Stewart A. Jennings Ann-Kristin Koehler Kathryn J. Nicklin Chetan Deva Steven M. Sait Andrew J. Challinor |
| author_sort | Stewart A. Jennings |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T13:53:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f212d23f4bc4c0abb26c7108fc7c70e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-581X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T13:53:36Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f212d23f4bc4c0abb26c7108fc7c70e2022-12-21T19:01:38ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems2571-581X2020-12-01410.3389/fsufs.2020.519324519324Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 FertilisationStewart A. Jennings0Ann-Kristin Koehler1Kathryn J. Nicklin2Chetan Deva3Steven M. Sait4Andrew J. Challinor5Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomFaculty of Biological Sciences, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomThe contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.519324/fulladaptationclimate changeclimate smart agriculture (CSA)yieldspotato |
| spellingShingle | Stewart A. Jennings Ann-Kristin Koehler Kathryn J. Nicklin Chetan Deva Steven M. Sait Andrew J. Challinor Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems adaptation climate change climate smart agriculture (CSA) yields potato |
| title | Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation |
| title_full | Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation |
| title_fullStr | Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation |
| title_short | Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation |
| title_sort | global potato yields increase under climate change with adaptation and co2 fertilisation |
| topic | adaptation climate change climate smart agriculture (CSA) yields potato |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2020.519324/full |
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