Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards
Crocodile lizards (<i>Shinisaurus crocodilurus</i>) are an endangered, ‘living fossil’ reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile li...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2022-10-01
|
| Series: | Animals |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/12/20/2731 |
| _version_ | 1797475994150371328 |
|---|---|
| author | Xiao-Li Zhang Facundo Alvarez Martin J. Whiting Xu-Dong Qin Ze-Ning Chen Zheng-Jun Wu |
| author_facet | Xiao-Li Zhang Facundo Alvarez Martin J. Whiting Xu-Dong Qin Ze-Ning Chen Zheng-Jun Wu |
| author_sort | Xiao-Li Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Crocodile lizards (<i>Shinisaurus crocodilurus</i>) are an endangered, ‘living fossil’ reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:52:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f589afca6f14e9f9dcc5475781eea0f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-2615 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:52:35Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Animals |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f589afca6f14e9f9dcc5475781eea0f2023-11-23T22:30:55ZengMDPI AGAnimals2076-26152022-10-011220273110.3390/ani12202731Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile LizardsXiao-Li Zhang0Facundo Alvarez1Martin J. Whiting2Xu-Dong Qin3Ze-Ning Chen4Zheng-Jun Wu5Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection, Guangxi Normal University, Ministry of Education, Guilin 541004, ChinaPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Campus Nova Xavantina, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina 78200-000, BrazilSchool of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney 2109, AustraliaGuangxi Daguishan Crocodile Lizard National Nature Reserve, Hezhou 542800, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection, Guangxi Normal University, Ministry of Education, Guilin 541004, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection, Guangxi Normal University, Ministry of Education, Guilin 541004, ChinaCrocodile lizards (<i>Shinisaurus crocodilurus</i>) are an endangered, ‘living fossil’ reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/12/20/2731climate changedispersalMaxentMigClim<i>Shinisaurus crocodilurus</i>Zonation |
| spellingShingle | Xiao-Li Zhang Facundo Alvarez Martin J. Whiting Xu-Dong Qin Ze-Ning Chen Zheng-Jun Wu Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards Animals climate change dispersal Maxent MigClim <i>Shinisaurus crocodilurus</i> Zonation |
| title | Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards |
| title_full | Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards |
| title_short | Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards |
| title_sort | climate change and dispersal ability jointly affects the future distribution of crocodile lizards |
| topic | climate change dispersal Maxent MigClim <i>Shinisaurus crocodilurus</i> Zonation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/12/20/2731 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xiaolizhang climatechangeanddispersalabilityjointlyaffectsthefuturedistributionofcrocodilelizards AT facundoalvarez climatechangeanddispersalabilityjointlyaffectsthefuturedistributionofcrocodilelizards AT martinjwhiting climatechangeanddispersalabilityjointlyaffectsthefuturedistributionofcrocodilelizards AT xudongqin climatechangeanddispersalabilityjointlyaffectsthefuturedistributionofcrocodilelizards AT zeningchen climatechangeanddispersalabilityjointlyaffectsthefuturedistributionofcrocodilelizards AT zhengjunwu climatechangeanddispersalabilityjointlyaffectsthefuturedistributionofcrocodilelizards |