Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication
Abstract Background The 2014–2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human. Methods We construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical sprea...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2017-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Translational Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12967-017-1224-6 |
| _version_ | 1818447033612107776 |
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| author | Shuo Jiang Kaiqin Wang Chaoqun Li Guangbin Hong Xuan Zhang Menglin Shan Hongbin Li Jin Wang |
| author_facet | Shuo Jiang Kaiqin Wang Chaoqun Li Guangbin Hong Xuan Zhang Menglin Shan Hongbin Li Jin Wang |
| author_sort | Shuo Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The 2014–2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human. Methods We construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical spread of Ebola and eradication pathways, further fit our model against the real total cases data and calculated infection rate as 1.754. Results With incorporating hospital isolation and application of medication in our model and analyzing their effect on resisting the spread, we demonstrate the second peak of 10,029 total cases in 23 days, and expect to eradicate EVD in 285 days. Using the regional spread of EVD with our transmission model analysis, we analyzed the numbers of new infections through four important transmission paths including household, community, hospital and unsafe funeral. Conclusions Based on the result of the model, we find out the key paths in different situations and propose our suggestion to control regional transmission. We fully considers Ebola characteristics, economic and time optimization, dynamic factors and local condition constraints, and to make our plan realistic, sensible and feasible. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T19:57:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f7a42ae73654703b3c84f4e9bb2869d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1479-5876 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T19:57:11Z |
| publishDate | 2017-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Translational Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f7a42ae73654703b3c84f4e9bb2869d2022-12-21T22:49:16ZengBMCJournal of Translational Medicine1479-58762017-06-0115111010.1186/s12967-017-1224-6Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradicationShuo Jiang0Kaiqin Wang1Chaoqun Li2Guangbin Hong3Xuan Zhang4Menglin Shan5Hongbin Li6Jin Wang7Scientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Dermatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical UniversityDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Economics, Tufts UniversityScientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan UniversityScientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan UniversityDepartment of Dermatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical UniversityScientific Research Center, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan UniversityAbstract Background The 2014–2015 epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa defines an unprecedented health threat for human. Methods We construct a mathematical model to devise the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication plan. We used mathematical model to investigate the numerical spread of Ebola and eradication pathways, further fit our model against the real total cases data and calculated infection rate as 1.754. Results With incorporating hospital isolation and application of medication in our model and analyzing their effect on resisting the spread, we demonstrate the second peak of 10,029 total cases in 23 days, and expect to eradicate EVD in 285 days. Using the regional spread of EVD with our transmission model analysis, we analyzed the numbers of new infections through four important transmission paths including household, community, hospital and unsafe funeral. Conclusions Based on the result of the model, we find out the key paths in different situations and propose our suggestion to control regional transmission. We fully considers Ebola characteristics, economic and time optimization, dynamic factors and local condition constraints, and to make our plan realistic, sensible and feasible.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12967-017-1224-6EbolaSpreadEradication pathwaysHospital isolationMathematical model |
| spellingShingle | Shuo Jiang Kaiqin Wang Chaoqun Li Guangbin Hong Xuan Zhang Menglin Shan Hongbin Li Jin Wang Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication Journal of Translational Medicine Ebola Spread Eradication pathways Hospital isolation Mathematical model |
| title | Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication |
| title_full | Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication |
| title_short | Mathematical models for devising the optimal Ebola virus disease eradication |
| title_sort | mathematical models for devising the optimal ebola virus disease eradication |
| topic | Ebola Spread Eradication pathways Hospital isolation Mathematical model |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12967-017-1224-6 |
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