Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble
This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of the summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia using six regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Domain Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia Phase II project. The framework combining multiple global climate models (G...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd208 |
| _version_ | 1827869777195958272 |
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| author | Donghyun Lee Seung-Ki Min Joong-Bae Ahn Dong-Hyun Cha Seok-Woo Shin Eun-Chul Chang Myoung-Seok Suh Young-Hwa Byun Jin-Uk Kim |
| author_facet | Donghyun Lee Seung-Ki Min Joong-Bae Ahn Dong-Hyun Cha Seok-Woo Shin Eun-Chul Chang Myoung-Seok Suh Young-Hwa Byun Jin-Uk Kim |
| author_sort | Donghyun Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of the summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia using six regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Domain Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia Phase II project. The framework combining multiple global climate models (GCMs) with multiple RCMs produces a larger spread in summer monsoon characteristics than driving GCMs only, enabling a better quantification of uncertainty factors. On average, the RCM simulations reproduce the observed summer monsoon duration and area better than the corresponding boundary GCMs, implying the added values of downscaling. Both the area and duration of the East Asian summer monsoon are projected to increase by the late 21st century, more strongly in high emission scenarios than in low emission scenarios, particularly in China. Different responses between scenarios, which indicate warming mitigation benefits, only become significant in the late 21st century due to large intersimulation uncertainties. Analysis of variance results show that uncertainty in future monsoon area and duration is larger between boundary GCMs than between RCMs over East Asia and its coastal subregions. A strong intersimulation relationship between RCMs and GCMs supports that boundary GCMs substantially diversify downscaled RCM projections through different climate sensitivities. Furthermore, the distinct subregional responses in future monsoon area and duration emphasize the importance of fine-resolution projections with appropriate uncertainty measures for better preparing region-specific adaptation plans. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6f884ccdfef74b42ae38d94f532fa7c1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-6f884ccdfef74b42ae38d94f532fa7c12023-08-09T15:17:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118606402610.1088/1748-9326/acd208Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensembleDonghyun Lee0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0184-2712Seung-Ki Min1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6749-010XJoong-Bae Ahn2Dong-Hyun Cha3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5053-6741Seok-Woo Shin4Eun-Chul Chang5Myoung-Seok Suh6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3827-0044Young-Hwa Byun7Jin-Uk Kim8Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford , Oxford, United Kingdom; Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology , Pohang, Republic of KoreaDivision of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology , Pohang, Republic of Korea; Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology, Yonsei University , Incheon, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University , Busan, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology , Ulsan, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology , Ulsan, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Kongju National University , Gongju, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Kongju National University , Gongju, Republic of KoreaClimate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences , Seogwipo, Republic of KoreaClimate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences , Seogwipo, Republic of KoreaThis study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of the summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia using six regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Domain Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia Phase II project. The framework combining multiple global climate models (GCMs) with multiple RCMs produces a larger spread in summer monsoon characteristics than driving GCMs only, enabling a better quantification of uncertainty factors. On average, the RCM simulations reproduce the observed summer monsoon duration and area better than the corresponding boundary GCMs, implying the added values of downscaling. Both the area and duration of the East Asian summer monsoon are projected to increase by the late 21st century, more strongly in high emission scenarios than in low emission scenarios, particularly in China. Different responses between scenarios, which indicate warming mitigation benefits, only become significant in the late 21st century due to large intersimulation uncertainties. Analysis of variance results show that uncertainty in future monsoon area and duration is larger between boundary GCMs than between RCMs over East Asia and its coastal subregions. A strong intersimulation relationship between RCMs and GCMs supports that boundary GCMs substantially diversify downscaled RCM projections through different climate sensitivities. Furthermore, the distinct subregional responses in future monsoon area and duration emphasize the importance of fine-resolution projections with appropriate uncertainty measures for better preparing region-specific adaptation plans.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd208East Asiarainy season lengthsummer monsoon areaclimate projection uncertaintyCORDEX Phase II |
| spellingShingle | Donghyun Lee Seung-Ki Min Joong-Bae Ahn Dong-Hyun Cha Seok-Woo Shin Eun-Chul Chang Myoung-Seok Suh Young-Hwa Byun Jin-Uk Kim Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble Environmental Research Letters East Asia rainy season length summer monsoon area climate projection uncertainty CORDEX Phase II |
| title | Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble |
| title_full | Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble |
| title_short | Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble |
| title_sort | uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over east asia using a multi gcm multi rcm ensemble |
| topic | East Asia rainy season length summer monsoon area climate projection uncertainty CORDEX Phase II |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd208 |
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