Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa
The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi...
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MDPI AG
2020-08-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/3/54 |
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| author | Lucy Mtilatila Axel Bronstert Pallav Shrestha Peter Kadewere Klaus Vormoor |
| author_facet | Lucy Mtilatila Axel Bronstert Pallav Shrestha Peter Kadewere Klaus Vormoor |
| author_sort | Lucy Mtilatila |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 °C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi’s water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (−5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (−0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 °C (3.5 °C) and −20% (−15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021–2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071–2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:47:54Z |
| format | Article |
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| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T17:47:54Z |
| publishDate | 2020-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-6fc99b8f0d524aca8fa785124c4ea7162023-11-20T09:28:10ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382020-08-01735410.3390/hydrology7030054Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE AfricaLucy Mtilatila0Axel Bronstert1Pallav Shrestha2Peter Kadewere3Klaus Vormoor4Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, Chair for Hydrology and Climatology, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute for Environmental Science and Geography, Chair for Hydrology and Climatology, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ, Brückstraße 3a, D-39114 Magdeburg, GermanyGovernment of the Republic of Malawi, Ministry of Irrigation and Water Developmen Department of Water Resources, Private Bag 390, Capital City, Lilongwe 3, MalawiInstitute for Environmental Science and Geography, Chair for Hydrology and Climatology, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyThe sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 °C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi’s water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (−5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (−0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 °C (3.5 °C) and −20% (−15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021–2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071–2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/3/54Lake Malawi BasinShire River Basinlake water balanceclimate change impacts in the tropicshydropower generationresponse surface analysis |
| spellingShingle | Lucy Mtilatila Axel Bronstert Pallav Shrestha Peter Kadewere Klaus Vormoor Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa Hydrology Lake Malawi Basin Shire River Basin lake water balance climate change impacts in the tropics hydropower generation response surface analysis |
| title | Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa |
| title_full | Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa |
| title_fullStr | Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa |
| title_short | Susceptibility of Water Resources and Hydropower Production to Climate Change in the Tropics: The Case of Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins, SE Africa |
| title_sort | susceptibility of water resources and hydropower production to climate change in the tropics the case of lake malawi and shire river basins se africa |
| topic | Lake Malawi Basin Shire River Basin lake water balance climate change impacts in the tropics hydropower generation response surface analysis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/3/54 |
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