Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019
The climate outlook for the 2019 southwest monsoon (SWM) season was prepared through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world during the fourteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF14). A...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000140 |
| _version_ | 1811235357055778816 |
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| author | I.M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena B.V.R. Punyawardena M.D.R.K. Karunarathne |
| author_facet | I.M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena B.V.R. Punyawardena M.D.R.K. Karunarathne |
| author_sort | I.M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The climate outlook for the 2019 southwest monsoon (SWM) season was prepared through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world during the fourteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF14). Above-normal rainfall was predicted over Sri Lanka for SWM 2019, and information was shared at the monsoon forum. Even though SWM 2019 seasonal rainfall wasslightly above average, highly uneven rainfall distribution with a deficit of rainfall at the beginning and a surplus of rainfall during the latter part of the season was observed. Unusual dry conditioned prevailed during the month of May 2019, which led to delay the onset of SWM by 2 weeks. Due to the delay of onset and rainfall deficit during the early part of 2019 SWM, late cultivation of paddy was observed. Hydro-catchment areas recorded large shortfalls in early part Southwest Monsoon rainfall reducing hydropower generation to 15–18%, from May to July.The suppressed phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) (phase 6 to 8) with anomalous easterly winds over Sri Lanka was evident from 04th May to 25th May. As MJO being a major predictive source in subseasonal timescale and Sri Lanka being a country located in the heart of the MJO envelope, integration of subseasonal information into seasonal outlook provide much greater value to decision-makers in Agriculture and Energy sector. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:49:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6fd667b7909f421fb9ce3f7156e884ef |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T11:49:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-6fd667b7909f421fb9ce3f7156e884ef2022-12-22T03:34:14ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072022-04-0126100296Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019I.M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena0B.V.R. Punyawardena1M.D.R.K. Karunarathne2Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka; Corresponding author.Natural Resource Management Center, Department of Agriculture, Sri LankaNational Control Centre, Ceylon Electricity Board, Sri LankaThe climate outlook for the 2019 southwest monsoon (SWM) season was prepared through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world during the fourteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF14). Above-normal rainfall was predicted over Sri Lanka for SWM 2019, and information was shared at the monsoon forum. Even though SWM 2019 seasonal rainfall wasslightly above average, highly uneven rainfall distribution with a deficit of rainfall at the beginning and a surplus of rainfall during the latter part of the season was observed. Unusual dry conditioned prevailed during the month of May 2019, which led to delay the onset of SWM by 2 weeks. Due to the delay of onset and rainfall deficit during the early part of 2019 SWM, late cultivation of paddy was observed. Hydro-catchment areas recorded large shortfalls in early part Southwest Monsoon rainfall reducing hydropower generation to 15–18%, from May to July.The suppressed phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) (phase 6 to 8) with anomalous easterly winds over Sri Lanka was evident from 04th May to 25th May. As MJO being a major predictive source in subseasonal timescale and Sri Lanka being a country located in the heart of the MJO envelope, integration of subseasonal information into seasonal outlook provide much greater value to decision-makers in Agriculture and Energy sector.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000140Climate outlookMJOSubseasonalSouthwest monsoon |
| spellingShingle | I.M. Shiromani Priyanthika Jayawardena B.V.R. Punyawardena M.D.R.K. Karunarathne Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019 Climate Services Climate outlook MJO Subseasonal Southwest monsoon |
| title | Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019 |
| title_full | Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019 |
| title_fullStr | Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019 |
| title_short | Importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019 |
| title_sort | importance of integration of subseasonal predictions to improve climate services in sri lanka case study southwest monsoon 2019 |
| topic | Climate outlook MJO Subseasonal Southwest monsoon |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000140 |
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