Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala
Background: Chronic kidney disease of unknown origin (CKDu) is an epidemic that disproportionately affects young agriculture workers in hot regions. It has been hypothesized that repeated acute kidney injury (AKI) may play a role in the development of disease. Methods: Latent class mixed models were...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Kidney International Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468024920313553 |
| _version_ | 1818412994086830080 |
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| author | Miranda Dally Jaime Butler-Dawson Richard J. Johnson Lyndsay Krisher Diana Jaramillo Kira L. Newman Lee S. Newman |
| author_facet | Miranda Dally Jaime Butler-Dawson Richard J. Johnson Lyndsay Krisher Diana Jaramillo Kira L. Newman Lee S. Newman |
| author_sort | Miranda Dally |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Chronic kidney disease of unknown origin (CKDu) is an epidemic that disproportionately affects young agriculture workers in hot regions. It has been hypothesized that repeated acute kidney injury (AKI) may play a role in the development of disease. Methods: Latent class mixed models were used to identify groups of Guatemalan sugarcane harvesters based on their daily changes in creatinine over 6 consecutive days in 2018. Exponential smoothing state space models were used to forecast end-of-season creatinine between the identified groups. Percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) across the harvest was compared between groups. Results: Twenty-nine percent (n = 30) of the 103 workers experienced repeated severe fluctuations in creatinine across shift. The model with multiplicative error, multiplicative trend, and multiplicative seasonality was able to accurately forecast end-of-season creatinine in the severe group (mean percentage error [MPE]: −4.7%). eGFR of workers in the severe group on average decreased 20% across season compared to 11% decline for those in the moderate group (95% confidence interval for difference: −17% to 0%). Conclusions: Daily fluctuations in creatinine can be used to forecast end-of-season creatinine in sugarcane harvesters. Workers who experience repeat severe daily fluctuations in creatinine, on average, experience a greater reduction in kidney function across the season. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T10:56:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-6fe4b08e8ad140e0befd69bc802dcdd7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0249 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T10:56:09Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Kidney International Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-6fe4b08e8ad140e0befd69bc802dcdd72022-12-21T23:04:55ZengElsevierKidney International Reports2468-02492020-09-015915581566Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in GuatemalaMiranda Dally0Jaime Butler-Dawson1Richard J. Johnson2Lyndsay Krisher3Diana Jaramillo4Kira L. Newman5Lee S. Newman6Center for Health, Work, & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Correspondence: Miranda Dally, Center for Health, Work & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, CU Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 E. 17th Place, Aurora, Colorado 80045, USA.Center for Health, Work, & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USADivision of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, School of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USACenter for Health, Work, & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USACenter for Health, Work, & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USAInternal Medicine Residency Program, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USACenter for Health, Work, & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USA; Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, USABackground: Chronic kidney disease of unknown origin (CKDu) is an epidemic that disproportionately affects young agriculture workers in hot regions. It has been hypothesized that repeated acute kidney injury (AKI) may play a role in the development of disease. Methods: Latent class mixed models were used to identify groups of Guatemalan sugarcane harvesters based on their daily changes in creatinine over 6 consecutive days in 2018. Exponential smoothing state space models were used to forecast end-of-season creatinine between the identified groups. Percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) across the harvest was compared between groups. Results: Twenty-nine percent (n = 30) of the 103 workers experienced repeated severe fluctuations in creatinine across shift. The model with multiplicative error, multiplicative trend, and multiplicative seasonality was able to accurately forecast end-of-season creatinine in the severe group (mean percentage error [MPE]: −4.7%). eGFR of workers in the severe group on average decreased 20% across season compared to 11% decline for those in the moderate group (95% confidence interval for difference: −17% to 0%). Conclusions: Daily fluctuations in creatinine can be used to forecast end-of-season creatinine in sugarcane harvesters. Workers who experience repeat severe daily fluctuations in creatinine, on average, experience a greater reduction in kidney function across the season.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468024920313553agricultural workersAKIchronic kidney disease of unknown originforecastingkidney function declineoccupational health |
| spellingShingle | Miranda Dally Jaime Butler-Dawson Richard J. Johnson Lyndsay Krisher Diana Jaramillo Kira L. Newman Lee S. Newman Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala Kidney International Reports agricultural workers AKI chronic kidney disease of unknown origin forecasting kidney function decline occupational health |
| title | Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala |
| title_full | Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala |
| title_fullStr | Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala |
| title_full_unstemmed | Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala |
| title_short | Creatinine Fluctuations Forecast Cross-Harvest Kidney Function Decline Among Sugarcane Workers in Guatemala |
| title_sort | creatinine fluctuations forecast cross harvest kidney function decline among sugarcane workers in guatemala |
| topic | agricultural workers AKI chronic kidney disease of unknown origin forecasting kidney function decline occupational health |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468024920313553 |
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