Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?
The steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China’s energy reformation in the future. Therefore, an...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2016-09-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/751 |
| _version_ | 1818012406408806400 |
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| author | Xiaopeng Guo Yanan Wei Jiahai Yuan |
| author_facet | Xiaopeng Guo Yanan Wei Jiahai Yuan |
| author_sort | Xiaopeng Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China’s energy reformation in the future. Therefore, analyzing the factors underlying the phenomenon of the decreasing steam coal price is significant. In this study, we first qualitatively analyze five main factors, namely, economy, supply, demand, substitutes, and port stocks. On the basis of the relationships among these five factors, we obtain the causality diagram and the system flow diagram of coal price for further quantitative research. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using the system dynamics (SD) method and determine the simulated price from 2012 to 2017. Finally, we discuss the running results and come to the conclusion that the steam coal price will continue to decrease under the combined actions of the five main factors and it will not rebound in the near future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:19:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7068de9574f24700a43de9e9368c9236 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:19:49Z |
| publishDate | 2016-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-7068de9574f24700a43de9e9368c92362022-12-22T02:08:04ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732016-09-019975110.3390/en9090751en9090751Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?Xiaopeng Guo0Yanan Wei1Jiahai Yuan2School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2 Beinong Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, ChinaThe steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China’s energy reformation in the future. Therefore, analyzing the factors underlying the phenomenon of the decreasing steam coal price is significant. In this study, we first qualitatively analyze five main factors, namely, economy, supply, demand, substitutes, and port stocks. On the basis of the relationships among these five factors, we obtain the causality diagram and the system flow diagram of coal price for further quantitative research. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using the system dynamics (SD) method and determine the simulated price from 2012 to 2017. Finally, we discuss the running results and come to the conclusion that the steam coal price will continue to decrease under the combined actions of the five main factors and it will not rebound in the near future.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/751steam coal pricefactor analysissystem dynamics (SD) methodsupply-demand |
| spellingShingle | Xiaopeng Guo Yanan Wei Jiahai Yuan Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? Energies steam coal price factor analysis system dynamics (SD) method supply-demand |
| title | Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? |
| title_full | Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? |
| title_fullStr | Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? |
| title_short | Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China? |
| title_sort | will the steam coal price rebound under the new economy normalcy in china |
| topic | steam coal price factor analysis system dynamics (SD) method supply-demand |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/9/751 |
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