| Summary: | This study analyses the results from an Australian ship survey and evaluates the performance of the Maritime Transport Emission Model (MTEM) that uses detailed data on local ship movement (Automatic Identification System) and ship characteristics. The model is designed to make accurate predictions at fleet level. The survey collected comprehensive information for 172 vessels in 2019, mainly bulk carriers, which dominate the Australian fleet. At fleet level and using default model settings, fuel consumption in transit and stationary (at berth) operating conditions are predicted with an error of 12% and 6%, respectively. For individual vessels, model predictions are significantly less reliable, which confirms that MTEM should be used for its intended purpose and estimate emissions at fleet level in regional areas. In transit conditions, the 95% confidence interval for fuel use prediction errors lies between about −50% and +75%. In stationary conditions, at berth, prediction errors can be larger, but the results suggest that these errors cancel each other out at fleet level, resulting in satisfactory overall model performance. Reported sulphur content in marine fuels confirms that the default emission factor for sulphur dioxide is still a reasonable estimate.
|
|---|