Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth
Fires bring up the debate about their impact on Brazil’s economic growth. Some processing tools such as cointegration and, especially, the correlation have been applied for identifying possible transmission or contagion mechanisms between distinct time series. This paper adopts the detrended cross-c...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Fire |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/5/148 |
| _version_ | 1797407307144888320 |
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| author | Claudio Marcio Cassela Inacio Vinicius V. Nogueira António M. Lopes Sergio Adriani David |
| author_facet | Claudio Marcio Cassela Inacio Vinicius V. Nogueira António M. Lopes Sergio Adriani David |
| author_sort | Claudio Marcio Cassela Inacio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Fires bring up the debate about their impact on Brazil’s economic growth. Some processing tools such as cointegration and, especially, the correlation have been applied for identifying possible transmission or contagion mechanisms between distinct time series. This paper adopts the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and rolling window approach to investigate the dynamic coupling between fires and the evolution of some key variables related to Brazil’s economic growth (e.g., agricultural planted area, ethanol production, rainfall in the midwest region and gross domestic product) covering two periods, namely from January 2012 to August 2016 (before the Brazilian presidential impeachment occurred in 2016) and from September 2016 to April 2021, covering the post-impeachment scenario, with the new government policies in the environmental sector. The results show a positive cross-correlation between the level of fires versus planted area of all cereals, leguminous and oleaginous in Brazil (mostly Soybean and Corn) and versus ethanol production (a renewable energy generation). It is also possible to verify some impact level on the Brazilian gross domestic product. Furthermore, we observed quantitatively, by means of the adopted methods that fires in Brazil have the potential to damage economic growth and some activities addressed in this study can also harm the environment in both mid and long-term. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:39:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7076eceaf7d04c27ba007892243065dc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-6255 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:39:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fire |
| spelling | doaj.art-7076eceaf7d04c27ba007892243065dc2023-12-03T14:43:13ZengMDPI AGFire2571-62552022-09-015514810.3390/fire5050148Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic GrowthClaudio Marcio Cassela Inacio0Vinicius V. Nogueira1António M. Lopes2Sergio Adriani David3Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of São Paulo, São Carlos 13566-590, BrazilDepartment of Biosystems Engineering, University of Sao Paulo, Pirassununga 13635-900, BrazilLAETA/INEGI, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, PortugalInstitute of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of São Paulo, São Carlos 13566-590, BrazilFires bring up the debate about their impact on Brazil’s economic growth. Some processing tools such as cointegration and, especially, the correlation have been applied for identifying possible transmission or contagion mechanisms between distinct time series. This paper adopts the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and rolling window approach to investigate the dynamic coupling between fires and the evolution of some key variables related to Brazil’s economic growth (e.g., agricultural planted area, ethanol production, rainfall in the midwest region and gross domestic product) covering two periods, namely from January 2012 to August 2016 (before the Brazilian presidential impeachment occurred in 2016) and from September 2016 to April 2021, covering the post-impeachment scenario, with the new government policies in the environmental sector. The results show a positive cross-correlation between the level of fires versus planted area of all cereals, leguminous and oleaginous in Brazil (mostly Soybean and Corn) and versus ethanol production (a renewable energy generation). It is also possible to verify some impact level on the Brazilian gross domestic product. Furthermore, we observed quantitatively, by means of the adopted methods that fires in Brazil have the potential to damage economic growth and some activities addressed in this study can also harm the environment in both mid and long-term.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/5/148time seriesDCCA methodcommoditiesrolling window |
| spellingShingle | Claudio Marcio Cassela Inacio Vinicius V. Nogueira António M. Lopes Sergio Adriani David Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth Fire time series DCCA method commodities rolling window |
| title | Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth |
| title_full | Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth |
| title_fullStr | Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth |
| title_short | Measuring Cross-Correlations, Contagion and Long-Range Behavior between Fires in Brazil and Some Time Series Related to Its Economic Growth |
| title_sort | measuring cross correlations contagion and long range behavior between fires in brazil and some time series related to its economic growth |
| topic | time series DCCA method commodities rolling window |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/5/148 |
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