Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method
Drought, a natural disaster, affects various sectors such as water supply, hydropower generation, agriculture, and industry. It is important to determine temporal change of drought in order to use water resources effectively and efficiently. In this study, drought analysis is performed using monthly...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Artvin Coruh University
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/1593754 |
| _version_ | 1826818745181405184 |
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| author | Veysel Gümüş Latif Doğan Dinsever Oğuz Şimşek |
| author_facet | Veysel Gümüş Latif Doğan Dinsever Oğuz Şimşek |
| author_sort | Veysel Gümüş |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Drought, a natural disaster, affects various sectors such as water supply, hydropower generation, agriculture, and industry. It is important to determine temporal change of drought in order to use water resources effectively and efficiently. In this study, drought analysis is performed using monthly total precipitation data measured between 1929-2016 at the meteorology observation station in Diyarbakır, Turkey. A homogeneity test is also made before drought analysis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method is used to determine drought for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months’ time scales, and Innovative Şen Method (also known as Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) is used to identify the trend of drought indices values for different time scales. The driest periods are determined according to time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months are found as 8, 18, 21 and 53 months, respectively. While the percentage of dry periods is 40% for the 1-month time scale (SPI-1), and about 50% for the other time scales. The percentage of droughts (sum of moderate, severe, and extreme drought) for 3-months (SPI-3), 6-months (SPI-6) and 12-months (SPI-12) is between 15% and 16.5%. The ITA method results show that a weak decreasing trend found on SPI-12 for indices value greater than 0.8, and a strong decreasing trend (more than 5%) is calculated for moderate wet values. In addition, it is determined that the index values, less than -3 and -3, in SPI-12 values shows a very strong increasing trend (more than 10%). Its means that the extreme dry situation has decreased in recent years. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T13:51:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-70ab24ae42ff4491a28a3da912de635c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2528-9640 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-16T05:57:21Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | Artvin Coruh University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj.art-70ab24ae42ff4491a28a3da912de635c2025-02-03T08:30:03ZengArtvin Coruh UniversityDoğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi2528-96402021-07-0172362373https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.884682Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen MethodVeysel Gümüş0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2321-9526 Latif Doğan Dinsever1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8573-1539Oğuz Şimşek2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-0229Harran Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği BölümüHarran Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği BölümüHarran Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği BölümüDrought, a natural disaster, affects various sectors such as water supply, hydropower generation, agriculture, and industry. It is important to determine temporal change of drought in order to use water resources effectively and efficiently. In this study, drought analysis is performed using monthly total precipitation data measured between 1929-2016 at the meteorology observation station in Diyarbakır, Turkey. A homogeneity test is also made before drought analysis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method is used to determine drought for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months’ time scales, and Innovative Şen Method (also known as Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) is used to identify the trend of drought indices values for different time scales. The driest periods are determined according to time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months are found as 8, 18, 21 and 53 months, respectively. While the percentage of dry periods is 40% for the 1-month time scale (SPI-1), and about 50% for the other time scales. The percentage of droughts (sum of moderate, severe, and extreme drought) for 3-months (SPI-3), 6-months (SPI-6) and 12-months (SPI-12) is between 15% and 16.5%. The ITA method results show that a weak decreasing trend found on SPI-12 for indices value greater than 0.8, and a strong decreasing trend (more than 5%) is calculated for moderate wet values. In addition, it is determined that the index values, less than -3 and -3, in SPI-12 values shows a very strong increasing trend (more than 10%). Its means that the extreme dry situation has decreased in recent years.http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/1593754drought analysistrend analysishomogeneitystandardized precipitation indexinnovative şen method |
| spellingShingle | Veysel Gümüş Latif Doğan Dinsever Oğuz Şimşek Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi drought analysis trend analysis homogeneity standardized precipitation index innovative şen method |
| title | Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method |
| title_full | Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method |
| title_fullStr | Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method |
| title_short | Trend Analysis of Historical Drought During 1929-2016 in Diyarbakır Station with Innovative Şen Method |
| title_sort | trend analysis of historical drought during 1929 2016 in diyarbakir station with innovative sen method |
| topic | drought analysis trend analysis homogeneity standardized precipitation index innovative şen method |
| url | http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/download/article-file/1593754 |
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